ADVERTISEMENT

Investing

JPMorgan AM Says ‘Foggy’ 2025 Set to Keep Fed on Hold Next Year

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., US, on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. The Federal Reserve will unveil details of what policy makers debated last month that may shed light on how they view the near-term path for interest rates amid surging inflation and signs of a slowing economy. (Al Drago/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is likely to pause its interest-rate cuts after December to assess the economic impact of policies under President-elect Donald Trump, Karen Ward, chief market strategist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Asset Management, said.  

Fed Chair Jerome Powell “has got a bit of a foggy 2025 to navigate,” Ward said in a media briefing in London. “Whether the policies play through to more growth or more inflation is yet to be seen, but we are working on the basis of: the Fed get one more done then are probably on hold through 2025.”

It’s an outlier view, as economists at most Wall Street banks expect Fed rate cuts to continue next year, and swap contracts that aim to predict what the US central bank will do anticipate the same. 

Fed policymakers cut their target for the US overnight lending rate by an initial half point on Sept. 18 and by a quarter point last week. Another quarter-point cut is about 70% priced in for their Dec. 18 decision, and another cumulative half point of cuts are anticipated next year. 

The prospect of fiscal expansion and higher inflation in the US should drive outperformance by Northern European government bonds, Ward said.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.