(Bloomberg) -- Yen-hedged Treasury yields are set to turn positive for the first time in two years as Donald Trump’s election victory pushes up US rates and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts lower hedging costs.
US 10-year yields rose to minus 13 basis points on Tuesday after taking into account cost to protect against a possible drop in the dollar against the yen. The hedged yields have been below zero since September 2022 as the Fed’s interest-rate hikes made it more expensive to short the greenback.
The rise in Treasury yields has spurred a debate as to whether Japanese investors will dive back into the asset class amid the Fed’s easing cycle or stay away on the contention that yields will rise further in the face of Trump’s higher tariff and tax cut plans.
Japanese investors were net buyers of Treasuries in the first three months of this year but have since turned sellers, data from the US Department of the Treasury showed. Overall, they sold $24.4 billion worth of Treasuries for the January-August period.
Still, funds in the Asian nation bought more than $1 billion each of US agency and corporate bonds during this period, signaling a shift to higher-yielding debt to offset still-prohibitive hedging costs and currency risk.
Cost that investors incur to hedge against a decline in the dollar against the yen for three months has slid to 4.56% from a peak of 6.01% a year earlier.
“FX hedging is still too costly, though that may change slightly if yields go positive after hedge costs,” said Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “Yields still won’t compete with Japanese government bonds, given 10-year JGBs are around 1%.”
The drop in currency hedging costs “influences Japanese demand for things like investment grade securities and taxable muni, which is an area we find very interesting,” said Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for fixed income at Franklin Templeton. “As the hedging costs go down, certainly different parts of the US market look more attractive.”
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