(Bloomberg) -- The Treasury market turbulence that followed Donald Trump’s victory has JPMorgan Asset Management’s bond chief warning that yields could return to a level that might endanger the stock market’s record run.
Bond prices tumbled dramatically immediately after Trump’s win this week, fanned by speculation the Republican will reignite inflation by cutting taxes and slapping tariffs on imports.
While 10-year yields have pulled back after climbing as high as 4.48%, it’s plausible they could return to 5% if Trump’s expected policies are enacted, according to Bob Michele, the chief investment officer and head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. Vincent Mortier, the chief investment officer of Amundi SA, also flagged that as a potentially key level that could cause a shift of cash from equities into bonds.
“5% proved to be a very difficult level for markets to absorb a couple years ago,” Michele said at his firm’s ETF Symposium event on Thursday.
“I’d say that discount rate applied to a lot of asset classes is going to cause a pause, a consolidation, and I don’t think that’s unrealistic. Is it going to happen over the next couple quarters? I don’t think so. When Congress and the new administration get seated and all these plans are to unfold, yeah, it could happen.”
Until Trump takes office in late January, Michele’s near-term expectation is that 10-year yields will settle around 4% as investors buy the dip in bonds. But once the new administration is seated and “legitimate proposals” are put on the table, he said the selloff could reignite.
So far, the bond market’s volatility has yet to exert a drag on stocks, which surged to new record highs. Optimism over potential corporate tax cuts and a deregulatory wave following Trump’s win fueled the surge, putting the S&P 500 on course for its best weekly performance of the year.
Paul Quinsee, JPMorgan Asset Management’s head of global equities, sees less risk to stocks from a rise in bond yields. While valuations are a concern, he anticipates that strong corporate profits will continue to support equities.
“We think next year, earnings are going to be up around 12%, 13%,” Quinsee said at the same event on Thursday. “With earnings growth ahead, we stay in the market.”
Michele is more skeptical. If Trump’s campaign proposals turn into policies that translate into higher inflation, the Federal Reserve — which enacted a widely expected quarter-percentage-point rate cut Thursday — would have to respond, he said.
“At some point, when we see what the borrowing, spending, tax cut, fiscal stimulus policy and tariffs — what that whole plan is — my expectation is the Fed will lean into that, the market will lead them to that, and rates will be higher,” Michele said. “So at some point, rates are going to hit a level that better earnings and stock-market valuations won’t be able to absorb.”
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