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China’s Commodities Imports Resilient as Markets Eye Stimulus

(Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese raw materials imports mostly rose year-on-year in October, according to customs data released Thursday, as demand remained resilient despite a slowing economy.

The government’s measures to stimulate growth should keep commodities purchases relatively firm in coming months as traders anticipate a boost to consumption. Legislators could reveal more on the fiscal component of that when their latest meeting wraps on Friday. Markets will be hoping for additional support given the trade challenges likely to be posed by Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Among energy products, coal imports maintained their record-setting pace, staying above 45 million tons for a fourth consecutive month in October as China continues to build stockpiles and prepare for demand spikes over the colder season. Shipments of both coal and natural gas have surged 14% over the year to date.

Crude oil was an outlier after refining activity weakened, with purchases dropping 8.7% from the year before to 44.7 million tons. Imports over the first 10 months have fallen 3.4% due to a prolonged slump in consumer spending, weaker demand from construction sites and the rapid adoption of electric vehicles.

Iron ore imports remained above 100 million tons for a fourth month, despite China’s property crisis and a slide in steel production, as traders stockpiled more of the feedstock. 

Steel exports, a key channel for soaking up domestic oversupply, surged above 11 million tons for the first time in nine years. Analysts said Trump’s election could lift overseas sales further in the period before he takes office if exporters are worried about global trade relations taking a turn for the worse.

Copper imports climbed above 500,000 tons for the first time since May to meet demand over the peak autumn season. Shipments of concentrate to feed China’s smelting expansion were flat, reflecting tight supply from overseas mines. 

Soybean imports were well ahead of last year, but dropped from the highs of the previous two months as buyers slowed purchases due to strong inventories and sluggish demand. 

On the Wire

China’s export growth surged in October to the fastest in more than two years, extending a months-long run of resilience that helped sustain the economy before a barrage of stimulus measures aimed at shoring up domestic demand.

China slashed the daily reference rate for its currency to a level unseen since late 2023, a sign the central bank is allowing depreciation under the treat of trade tensions with the US under a Donald Trump presidency.

When Donald Trump first started a trade war with China in 2018, Beijing found itself on the back foot and unsure of how to respond. This time President Xi Jinping is better prepared for a fight, even as he has more to lose.

The Week’s Diary

(All times Beijing unless noted.)

Thursday, Nov. 7:

  • National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets through Nov. 8
  • China’s 1st batch of Oct. trade data, including steel, iron ore & copper imports; steel, aluminum & rare earth exports; oil, gas & coal imports; oil products imports & exports; soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports ~11:00
  • China’s foreign reserves for October, including gold
  • Asia Tin Week in Shanghai, day 2
  • China International Import Expo in Shanghai, day 3
    • Mineral Resources Supply Chain conference
  • China International Lead & Zinc Week in Changsha, Hunan, day 3

Friday, Nov. 8:

  • National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting ends
  • China’s weekly iron ore port stockpiles
  • Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:00
  • China’s monthly CASDE crop supply-demand report
  • Asia Tin Week in Shanghai, day 3
  • China International Import Expo in Shanghai, day 4
    • China International Oil and Gas Trade Congress, day 1

Saturday, Nov. 9

  • China’s inflation data for October, 09:30
  • China to release Oct. aggregate finance & money supply by Nov. 15
  • China International Import Expo in Shanghai, day 5
    • China International Oil and Gas Trade Congress, day 2

Sunday, Nov. 10

  • China International Import Expo in Shanghai, last day

--With assistance from Kathy Chen, Sarah Chen, Katharine Gemmell, Yihui Xie, Hallie Gu and Winnie Zhu.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.