(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States, pulling off a stunning political comeback in one of the most polarized contests for the White House in US history.
Trump, 78, won an unprecedented race during which he was convicted of felonies, survived two assassination attempts and crushed a challenge from Vice President Kamala Harris after she replaced an unpopular President Joe Biden in the campaign’s final months.
He was elected by a country deeply at odds over immigration, abortion and foreign policy, and one still feeling the pinch after the biggest surge of inflation in four decades. Trump also helped Republicans recapture the Senate, underscoring his ability to seize on voter angst.
“We just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America,” Trump said early Wednesday at his election watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Domestically, the result gives his party the upper hand in next year’s battle to rewrite the tax code, and four years to reshape the federal judiciary. Trump has pledged dramatic action upon returning to office, from a sweeping immigration crackdown to a regulatory rollback, as well as steep cuts to federal spending, a purge of civil servants, and a vow to prosecute political enemies.
Internationally, Trump’s return could call US security commitments into question — especially to Ukraine, as it fends off Russia’s invasion. Trump also vowed to ramp up the trade contest with China, and slap tariffs on other countries too — moves that could upend global trade.
S&P 500 futures climbed, 10-year yields rose and Bitcoin spiked as markets digested Trump’s victory.
Trump clinched his victory as voters across the country lurched to the right, enabling him to capture key battleground states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Exit polls indicated that despite Harris focusing heavily on turning out female voters - hoping frustration in the aftermath of the Supreme Court overturning federal abortion rights protections would help expand her advantage - she was unable to improve on Biden’s showing with women. But Trump, who devoted significant resources to targeting young and minority men, posted significant gains with Black and Hispanic men compared to four years prior.
The election was driven in large part by Americans’ post-pandemic frustration with decades-high inflation, a surge of migrants at the southern border and growing cultural divides.
Trump’s White House comeback represents a calamity for Democrats, who rallied quickly around Harris only to again fail to prevent a man they have cast as an existential threat to democracy itself from returning to office.
The first woman to serve as vice president, Harris campaigned for just 107 days after President Joe Biden turned the contest upside down by dropping out and endorsing her. In rejecting the 60-year old Harris, voters opted against a generational shift and a candidate seeking to be the first woman president. Harris, who is expected to address supporters later Wednesday, would have also been the first Black and Asian American woman to lead the US.
The election hinged on the economy, a dominant issue and one where voters said they favored Trump over Harris. Americans experienced the highest inflation since the 1980s during the Biden administration in the pandemic’s aftermath, overshadowing the economic rebound and low unemployment rates touted by the Harris campaign.
Trump Nostalgia
Polls found voter nostalgia for Trump’s first term, before Covid hit, when incomes for the typical American household rose much faster than they did under Biden. Harris sought to highlight darker moments of that era, including the attempted insurrection at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and warnings from his former aides about anti-democratic impulses. In the final days before the election, Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly said the Republican nominee had made admiring comments about Adolf Hitler.
In Vice President-elect JD Vance, 40, Trump has a fellow populist who has positioned himself as a potential heir to the Make America Great Again movement.
Trump now confronts governing a country deeply at odds with itself - and weighing how to prioritize his promises. He has vowed to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and, if necessary, deploy the military domestically. Now that conservative jurists he placed on the Supreme Court have bestowed presidents with immunity for official actions, Trump will return to the White House less constrained by law and with institutional knowledge gained from his first term.
The final days of Trump’s comeback bid were marked by his incendiary rhetoric including a rally held at Madison Square Garden in New York that included racist and misogynistic speeches.
Still, business leaders, many of whom shunned Trump after his 2021 exit, rebounded to his side, wooed by promises to slash corporate tax rates, roll back regulations and embrace of burgeoning industries such as cryptocurrency.
Political Comeback
In less than four years, Trump managed an astounding political recovery that seemed unlikely when he left office on Jan. 20, 2021, skipping Biden’s inauguration and under a cloud over the attack on the Capitol. Grover Cleveland is the only other US president to have lost a reelection bid and come back to win another nonconsecutive term.
Trump’s woes multiplied in 2022 when the FBI searched his Mar-a-Lago home to retrieve top secret documents removed during his time in office.
Despite these challenges, Trump made official his third White House run in November 2022.
Backed by a small, tight-knit group of operatives who brought new discipline and organization — and largely avoided the backbiting that pervaded past campaigns — Trump quickly trounced his primary opponents. He mercilessly derided top rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
Trump only strengthened his hold on Republicans despite facing four indictments across federal and state courts over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election result, his retention of classified documents and hush-money payments to a porn star. A New York City jury in the latter case found him guilty on 34 felony counts, a first for a former president.
Trump, though, cast himself as a political martyr — including fundraising off a mug shot from Georgia — and in the process supercharged his campaign as Republicans rallied behind him.
Unorthodox Campaign
The defining moment of Trump’s campaign came at a July rally, when his ear was grazed by a would-be assassin’s bullet and the bloodied candidate raised his fist in defiance, delivering an iconic image that energized his base.
The shooting further damaged Biden’s hopes of continuing his campaign, already badly hit by his disastrous performance in a June presidential debate that seemed to validate longstanding questions about his age and acuity. The president, 81, had sought to salvage his legacy by stepping aside and backing Harris, who enjoyed early momentum as Democrats embraced their new nominee.
Trump outsourced many typical campaign functions like door-knocking to the Republican National Committee, installing his daughter-in-law as one of its leaders in a demonstration of his control. Outside groups held responsibility for ground-game operations, including a political action committee funded by Elon Musk, a gamble that saved campaign money — and ultimately paid off.
Even though Harris held a massive financial advantage in the final stretch, Trump managed to woo new contributors from Silicon Valley and mega-donors such as Musk, who also used his X platform to back the Republican.
Ambitious Agenda
On the economic front, Trump has vowed to undo many Biden policies including parts of his landmark Inflation Reduction Act that gave support to electric vehicles and clean energy. Trump has also suggested that as president he’d seek greater influence over the Federal Reserve and ease regulatory burdens, in particular for digital assets like cryptocurrency.
But while his economic pitch helped him win, economists warn Trump’s plans to renew expiring tax cuts and offer a myriad of other breaks — in addition to his proposed tariffs — threaten more inflation and to drive up the national debt. The president-elect has dismissed claims tariffs will reduce or divert trade flows and rattle supply chains.
His ascension may also upend global alliances. Trump has expressed skepticism of the European Union and NATO, questioned America’s support for Ukraine and suggested Taiwan should pay for US protection.
His return to power is likely to embolden right-wing allies such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, while striking alarm in other foreign capitals, such as Kyiv as the Ukraine-Russia war drags on.
--With assistance from Stephanie Lai, Hadriana Lowenkron and Ben Holland.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.