(Bloomberg) -- The Riksbank is likely to step up the pace of easing this week, according to SEB AB traders who expect market movements to be limited after the decision is announced on Thursday.
The lender’s trading room survey showed that 63% of respondents believe the Riksbank will cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 2.75% from 3.25%, while 37% expect the Swedish central bank to continue lowering in quarter-point increments.
The central bank has previously said it could make a bigger move, and expectations shifted in favor of that option following data released last week showing that the Swedish economy remains in a holding pattern. Output shrank in the third quarter, and the country’s large export sector is becoming more pessimistic.
Most traders in the survey expect the Riksbank to cut by 25 basis points in December, but 8% predict a second half-point reduction then. Of those surveyed, 16% believe that the Riksbank will stay on hold through year-end after cutting by 50 basis points this week.
The following market reactions to the different scenarios are expected by the survey participants:
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