(Bloomberg) -- From Mexico City to Shanghai, traders whipsawed by a volatile year are preparing for a fresh political jolt: a US presidential election that’s threatening to upend global trade and potentially roil the economic outlook across the developing world.
As the race remained neck-and-neck in the runup to Tuesday’s vote, investors were positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump, whose tariff and tax plans would likely curb imports and put upward pressure on US interest rates. Those bets could be seen getting pared in early Monday trading, with the latest polls casting more doubt on Trump’s odds of victory.
In recent weeks, hedge funds had been stepping up bets against the Mexican peso, sending it sliding to the lowest this year. The Chinese yuan slipped, too, as the dollar staged its biggest advance in over two years. Investors yanked money out of funds focused on developing countries’ bonds and around the world, and emerging-market stocks just had their worst monthly loss since January.
The price movements show the high stakes across emerging markets, which is leaving them primed for another round of selling or a rapid rebound if Vice President Kamala Harris is handed a victory at the polls.
In “an election that is a complete toss up, it is very difficult to take active currency bets,” said Arif Joshi, co-head of emerging-market debt at Lazard Asset Management, who said markets are pricing in some of the risks of voters returning Trump to the White House. That suggests a Harris win would be “a structural bullish move for emerging markets.”
Hints of that emerged on Monday, with the currencies of Brazil, Poland and Mexico among the biggest gainers as investors recalibrated their bets after some polls shifted toward Harris.
Trump would likely alter the status quo far more significantly than Harris, a former US senator who has served as President Joe Biden’s vice president for the past four years. In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump’s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies.
Trump has also cast doubt on the US’s commitment to alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and to Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia’s invasion. That has weighed on local bonds of some eastern European countries and pushed up Ukraine’s dollar debt on wagers that Trump’s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see a knee-jerk negative reaction if Trump is elected, with everybody kind of freaking out, and then starting to see if the approach is more pragmatic,” said Robert Koenigsberger, founder and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management.
The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges. The power of the incoming president will also hinge heavily on whether their party controls Congress.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say...
Export-driven emerging markets — save for China — were relatively unscathed during Donald Trump’s first term in the White House, while countries with larger external debts took a hit from higher interest rates. A potential second Trump administration could be similar for EMs, depending largely on whether Trump imposes the global tariffs he’s threatened and the direction of US dollar rates.
—Adriana Dupita, Bloomberg economist. For more, click here
Currencies
The Mexican peso, which trades 24 hours a day and in sizable volumes, will likely be one of the first indications of how the results will affect emerging markets. Already, a volatility metric on the currency rose to the highest since the onset of the pandemic.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists Gisela Brant and Tania Escobedo Jacob predicted that the peso could strengthen past 19 if Harris wins. On the flip side, Brad Bechtel at Jefferies says it may slip near the 22-per-dollar mark if Trump is elected. It was trading 1.2% stronger at around 20.05 per dollar as of 11:20 a.m. in New York on Monday.
Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won might also come under pressure if tariff increases seem likely. The yuan slumped 1.6% in October, and its one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years.
“The polls continue to suggest a very tight race,” Morgan Stanley strategists led by James Lord wrote in a note Monday. “According to our options positioning tracker, investors are fairly neutral on MXN and CNH going into the US election.”
Bonds
The impact will likely ripple out into global bond markets as well.
El Salvador’s government debt may gain if a Trump victory is seen as giving President Nayib Bukele the ability to use his relationship with the Republican to help secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine’s bonds have also climbed ahead of the election on growing bets Trump’s return will hasten the war’s end.
At the same time, that could be a “negative scenario for Poland and other members of NATO,” according to Piotr Matys, a senior currency strategist at In Touch Capital Markets.
Bonds denominated in local currency from Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary have lagged peers since the end of September, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A $14.7 billion exchange-traded fund tracking emerging-market bonds recorded its largest monthly outflow since March last month as investors fled risk.
Equities
Trump’s tariff plans carry particular risks for China, which he has singled out for levies of 60% or more just as its government is struggling to revive the faltering economy.
Developing nations with high exposure to the US and heavy reliance on Chinese inputs could also face headwinds from an escalating trade war, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Stocks of companies in countries including South Korea and Taiwan could be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions, the bank said.
In Latin America, Morgan Stanley strategists including Nikolaj Lippmann are expecting a “relief rally” in Brazil and Mexico equities — supported by currency gains — under a Harris victory. Weakness is expected should Trump win, they said.
What to Watch
- Traders are awaiting interest-rate decisions in Brazil, Poland, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, the UK and the US
- Consumer price data for Mexico is due on Thursday, while Colombia and Chile will release inflation prints on Friday
- India and China will release PMI data
--With assistance from Wojciech Moskwa, Catherine Bosley, Sangmi Cha and Malavika Kaur Makol.
(Updates market moves, adds comments from Morgan Stanley and ETF data starting in sixth paragraph.)
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