ADVERTISEMENT

Investing

OPEC’s Oil Output Recovers After Libya Resolves Political Crisis

By Grant Smith, Julian Lee, and Bill Lehane
A logo outside the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria, on Thursday, July 6, 2023. The oil market is finally starting to show signs of tightening, a relief for traders who have grappled with fading optimism around China’s recovery and concerns over the global demand outlook. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg (Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC’s oil production rose last month as Libya restored output that was halted during a brief political crisis.

Supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased by 370,000 barrels a day to 29.9 million a day in October, according to a Bloomberg survey. The gain was tempered by reductions in Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Libya revived production by 500,000 barrels to 1.03 million per day, after authorities in the east of the country restarted oilfields and export terminals they shuttered during a fight with the Tripoli-based government over control of the central bank. 

The second-biggest change was in Iraq, which cut by 90,000 barrels to 4.13 million a day, as it belatedly made progress in implementing its share of cutbacks agreed at the start of the year. Baghdad remained above its daily quota of 4 million.

Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC and its allies have been hoping to start reversing supply curbs made over the past two years to shore up crude prices, but have been thwarted by deteriorating market conditions.

Oil futures have retreated 15% since early July as demand falters in top consumer China while supply grows in the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana. At about $75 a barrel in London, prices are too low for the Saudis and many others in OPEC+ to cover government spending.

Key nations are scheduled to begin a series of monthly supply increases by adding 180,000 barrels a day in December, but traders are divided on whether the cartel will go ahead. Several delegates who asked not to be identified have noted the market’s fragility, and a decision could come over the next week. 

The alliance’s efforts to balance world markets have been undermined by the failure of some members to curb output as agreed — most notably Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia. 

While the trio have demonstrated better compliance in recent months, they’ve generally yet to conform to their quotas, let alone begin extra cutbacks promised as compensation for overproducing. 

Ministers from the full 23-nation OPEC+ alliance are due to gather on Dec. 1 to review policy for 2025.

Bloomberg’s survey is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials and estimates from consultants, including FGE, Kpler Ltd., Rapidan Energy Group and Rystad Energy.

--With assistance from Verity Ratcliffe, Prejula Prem, Anthony Di Paola and John Deane.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.