(Bloomberg) -- Israel is considering a US-led proposal to end the conflict in Lebanon and keep Hezbollah fighters away from the countries’ frontier.
It is set to host White House mediators in what appears to be a push by Washington to make progress before the American presidential election on Tuesday.
Six weeks after launching a campaign of sabotage, air barrages and ground incursions against Hezbollah, Israel says it has driven back and cut down the Iranian-backed faction, whose cross-border rocket and drone launches persist but at a reduced rate.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met top aides late on Tuesday to discuss a fresh proposal, his spokesperson said. On Thursday, he will meet US President Joe Biden’s most senior Middle East envoys, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, as part of the talks, another Israeli official said.
The new plan, which faces plenty of obstacles, would lead to a 60-day suspension of hostilities. In that period, the parties would test an enforcement mechanism to ensure Hezbollah doesn’t receive any more arms from Iran and withdraws north of Lebanon’s Litani River, according to a separate person familiar with the negotiations. That would be in line with a long-standing United Nations Security Council resolution named 1701.
Israeli troops would maintain positions along the border and be able to strike Hezbollah if they saw infractions, the person added.
The Lebanese army would have a role in reining in Hezbollah, including seizing its weapons and dismantling its infrastructure, according to Israeli public broadcaster Kan.
Hezbollah is yet to signal it’s interested in the proposal and its new leader says it’s able to keep fighting. Similar to Gaza, where Israel-Hamas truce talks have stalled in recent months, there’s no guarantee the US will be able to bridge the gaps between the two sides anytime soon.
In a televised speech on Wednesday, Naim Qasem, appointed head of Hezbollah on Tuesday, struck a note of defiance. While he seemed to soften the group’s long-standing stance that it can only accept a cease-fire when there’s one in Gaza, he suggested the group can fight a war with Israel for many more months, if not longer.
The Lebanese state, meanwhile, has said it can’t accept any Israeli demand to retain the right to strike Hezbollah even after a truce. A draft plan cited by Kan included a stipulation that neither country would be precluded “from exercising their inherent right to self-defense” — phrasing likely designed to appease Israel.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, speaking on Wednesday, said there was a “glimmer of hope” a cease-fire could be agreed within days. He said his government was prepared to deploy more troops in south Lebanon and ensure there are no Hezbollah fighters in the areas close to Israel.
The Lebanese government, however, has little influence over Hezbollah’s decisions and only exists in caretaker form. The country — in economic crisis for years before the Israel-Hezbollah conflict started last October — has no president, with political parties bickering over who should get the role.
In the meantime, fighting continues. Israel’s military gave an evacuation order for the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek and some surrounding areas on Wednesday. Hours later, an airstrike on what Israel described as a local Hezbollah fuel depot set off a massive blast. At least 19 people were killed, Lebanon’s health ministry said.
More than 100 people were killed in Israeli attacks on similar parts of Lebanon earlier this week, according to the ministry.
Hezbollah started firing missiles and drones at Israel a day after the war with Hamas erupted on Oct. 7, 2023. It has continued its salvos despite suffering heavy losses. On Wednesday, the Israeli military sounded sirens in Haifa and parts of the Galilee region and said 50 missiles had crossed from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted.
Qasem replaced Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut last month, dealing a massive blow to Hezbollah and Iran, its main sponsor.
Both Hezbollah and Hamas have received funding and training from Iran. They are considered terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries.
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking on Tuesday, said Hezbollah’s chain of command is now demolished and estimated that its missile and rocket capability is 20% of what it was pre-conflict.
Talk of cease-fires have helped to push down oil prices. Brent crude sank more than 6% on Monday and Tuesday, before staging a partial recovery on Wednesday. The drop was also due to Israel avoiding Iran’s most sensitive infrastructure — such as oil and nuclear facilities — when it carried out a strike on the Islamic Republic on Saturday.
“The war in the north will be over by the end of the year,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told reporters on Tuesday, referring to the Lebanese front. He added that 2025 “will not be a year of war, it will be a year of exiting the war.”
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid said he is receiving updates from the government on efforts to wind down fighting in Lebanon.
“I think it would be right to achieve a diplomatic victory,” he said to Israel’s Army Radio.
The conflict has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on each side of the Israel-Lebanon border area.
Israel’s attacks across Lebanon in the last six weeks have killed more than 2,000 people and displaced about 1.2 million, according to the Lebanese government. Almost 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed due to Hezbollah’s strikes over the last year.
--With assistance from Galit Altstein, Ethan Bronner, Omar El Chmouri, Youssef Diab and Dana Khraiche.
(Updates with more comments from Lebanese officials,)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.