(Bloomberg) -- Neuberger Berman warned against buying US Treasury bonds on dips, saying the recent selloff could be the beginning of a “surprisingly sustained” move higher in yields.
The risk of the Federal Reserve pausing its interest rate reductions, heightened volatility and resilient US growth as well as sticky inflation could push yields on five-year Treasury notes up to about 4.50% over the next three months, said Ashok Bhatia, the firm’s co-chief investment officer for fixed income. They’re yielding about 4.13% now.
“Fixed-income investors ought to brace for more downside volatility,” said Bhatia, with the risk that the US five-year note returns to the highs from mid-2024. New York-based Neuberger Berman manages $510 billion.
Bonds have sold off over the past month, pushing the US 10-year yield above 4% for the first time since early August, as investors pared back bets on aggressive easing given the US economy remains robust. Bhatia said tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of bigger fiscal deficits after the US presidential election are adding to the market’s concerns.
The market’s pricing of the terminal fed funds rate at 3.5% looks reasonable, said Bhatia, though he doesn’t see it going there in a straight line. The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points and in December, then take a pause as early as the first quarter, with “100 basis points of cuts under its belt,” he said.
“With that scenario in mind, in client portfolios where there is the most freedom to adjust duration, we are currently at the low end of our ranges, at around 3.5 years — just over half the duration of the major investment grade benchmarks,” Bhatia said.
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