(Bloomberg) -- The efforts to rebuild in Southeastern states after a pair of destructive hurricanes are at risk of being drawn out by shortages of a critical supply of workers: migrants.
Builders are anxious about proposals laid out by Donald Trump that would further crack down on immigration — a key source of labor for the construction industry. The sector is grappling for more workers not only to address a structural housing shortage stemming from the Great Recession, but also more recently to rebuild communities torn apart by Hurricanes Helene and Milton that are left with billions of dollars in damages.
“The labor that is needed to rebuild and restore these homes, I don’t even know where to begin,” said John Anglin, who works at construction firm Branch near Asheville, North Carolina. “The workforce needed to rebuild was already strained before.”
Government figures show one in four construction workers nationwide were born outside the US. In some of the country’s largest housing markets, that number is even higher. Foreign-born workers hold 53% of all construction jobs in New York City, and about half of the construction workforce in Texas is estimated to be undocumented.
Of the almost 12 million workers in the construction industry, 1.5 million — or 13% — are unauthorized immigrants, according to 2022 estimates from Pew Research Center, the most recent available.
Both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have proposed to crack down on illegal immigration, although at a vastly different scale. He vowed to deport all unauthorized migrants while she would further restrict border crossing.
Economists say a large scaling back would not be good for the overall economy — especially sectors like construction and agriculture. A strained workforce could lead to a lack of housing supply and higher costs. And Americans displaced by natural disasters might face longer wait times before being able to return to their homes.
There are currently a record 8.3 million construction workers in the US, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Except for the onset of the pandemic, payrolls have increased nearly every month since hitting a post-financial crisis low in 2011.
However, the Associated Builders and Contractors trade group estimated at the start of this year that the industry needs an additional half a million workers to meet demand.
“Labor markets are still extremely tight in the construction industry,” Brian Turmail, vice president for public affairs and strategic initiative at the Associated General Contractors of America. “The word immigration for whatever reason has become a bit nuclear in the US dialogue.”
Campaign Proposals
Trump has capitalized on anti-immigration rhetoric to fuel his base. He’s promised to carry out the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” which would deport unauthorized immigrants, among other proposals. That would result in “a hit to construction, very quickly and very large,” according to Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy and Research.
“President Trump’s mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer but will save Americans from footing the bill for years to come,” Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement.
Harris, meanwhile, supports a bipartisan immigration bill drafted by senators earlier this year that would make it harder to apply for asylum and speed up deportations — though it would also add more visas for legal immigration.
Baker said her policies could still be a drag on the industry and make reconstruction and housing efforts more difficult and costly to achieve. The Harris campaign didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.
The election is drawing near just as communities across the Southeast are starting to rebuild after the storms made landfall in the past month. Amber Lawson, principal at Georgia-based Aspire Construction & Design, said many of her firm’s subcontractors like roofers and carpenters are being reshuffled to help with reconstruction. That shortage of labor and materials might force her to delay the start of a separate apartment complex outside Atlanta, she said.
“I am looking to see effects of labor shortages over the next month or two,” Lawson said. “It’s really just making a tight market already much much tighter.”
From the ground of reconstruction efforts in Florida, Saket Soni, executive director of Resilience Force — a nonprofit that organizes and advocates for disaster relief workers — said mayors and governors are depending on aid teams to get residents back in their homes as quickly as possible. But the US needs immigration policies that would provide for a greater core of skilled workers.
“The immigration policy we really need is one that recognizes that and institutionalizes these workers, gives them a way to stay in this country and contribute to our ongoing adaptiveness and resilience to the disasters we know are coming,” Soni said. “The entire recovery and long-term rebuilding after hurricanes depends on immigrant labor.”
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