(Bloomberg) -- Global bond sales will climb 17% this year to about $9 trillion with momentum from the third quarter likely sustained, S&P Global Ratings said, revising up a previous estimate.
The pace of bond issuance in 2025, including municipal, corporate and structured debt, will likely moderate to a 4% jump, given the high-base of comparison this year and slowing economic growth, according to the firm’s report dated Oct. 23.
“After years of rapid rate increases by central banks and scuttled expectations for cuts in the past, borrowers will welcome lower rates in 2025, even if they prove modest,” S&P credit research analysts including Nick Kraemer wrote in the note. “Lower rates may spur more mergers and acquisitions and other growth-oriented demands for debt.”
The findings align with other indications of robust bond market activity this year despite relatively high rates and geopolitical tensions. Market participants have “reached relative consensus” regarding interest rate cuts next year and that will likely also help boost issuance, the analysts said.
S&P’s revision was largely a byproduct of robust third quarter activity. More than 1,226 of issuers sold over $600 billion of bonds in September alone — the most for the month in records going back more than two decades — according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In July, S&P analysts had predicted sales in 2024 would climb 9% to about $8.3 trillion.
Upcoming debt maturities, China’s moves to boost growth and higher AI investments could drive global issuance in the coming years, S&P said.
Risks to the 2025 forecast include threats to global trade that could impact inflation and force central banks to slow or pause rate cuts, it said.
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