(Bloomberg) -- Russian oil-product exports are on course to hit the lowest in at least eight years this month amid a sharp drop in refining activity.
Seaborne fuel shipments averaged about 1.9 million barrels a day in the first 20 days of October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s down 11% from the previous month and slightly less than in August, when flows hit the lowest in data going back to the start of 2016.
The dip comes as the country’s refinery run rates are on track to fall to the lowest in more than two years in October amid seasonal maintenance, limiting refined fuel supplies. Activities may also be affected by smaller refining profits that make processing at some facilities less attractive.
Russia’s oil shipments are a key indicator for the market to gauge production trends since Moscow classified official output data. Four-week average crude exports jumped in the week to Oct. 20 to reach the highest since late June.
There’s still time for oil-product exports to pick up before the end of the month if the situation changes. In the first 10 days of October, average flows were actually up compared with September’s amount.
Here’s a breakdown of shipments from Russian ports for Oct. 1-20:
Diesel and gasoil exports dropped 10% from the previous month to 735,000 barrels a day. While shipments to Africa jumped, cargoes to South America halved.
Naphtha shipments declined almost 8% to 317,000 barrels a day, the lowest in data going back to 2016. There have been fewer cargoes bound for Asia and South America, but exports to the United Arab Emirates have surged.
Flows of gasoline and blending components grew 7% to 73,000 barrels a day, while jet fuel shipments fell about 9% to 33,000 barrels a day.
Fuel oil exports slipped 20% to a five-month low of 583,000 barrels a day, pulling back from high levels seen in early October. Exports of refinery feedstocks like vacuum gasoil jumped 13% to 116,000 barrels a day.
Cargo volumes and destinations are likely to be revised if more port data or vessel information becomes available.
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