(Bloomberg) -- Moldovan President Maia Sandu faced an unexpected setback as a referendum on joining the European Union appeared on track to pass with a slim margin, defying pre-vote polls showing a consistent majority in the former Soviet republic backing accession.
Sandu, who secured a victory in the first round of the nation’s presidential election, denounced what she called Russian meddling in the contest in an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.”
With votes still trickling in from Moldovans voting abroad – a group that tends to overwhelmingly back Sandu’s EU objectives – a “yes” vote was ahead by fewer than 1,000 votes, according to preliminary results.
“Criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies, and propaganda, using the most disgraceful means to keep our citizens and our nation trapped in uncertainty and instability,” Sandu said early Monday.
She cited findings by her security officials that some 300,000 voters had been paid off, “a fraud of unprecedented scale,” Sandu said.
Some 50.08% supported EU accession in the ballot on Sunday, the Central Electoral Commission showed, with almost all results counted. In the presidential race, Sandu secured about 42% support, the most among a group of 11 contenders.
She’ll likely face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian candidate and former prosecutor, in a runoff set for Nov. 3. He came in second with about 26%. The runoff is set for Nov. 3.
One of Europe’s poorest nations, Moldova began EU accession talks this year after securing candidacy status alongside Ukraine in 2022. Sandu’s government has pledged to overhaul the nation’s justice system and bolster the economy to become a member by 2030.
Disruption Attempts
But Russia, which has dominated Moldova’s energy resources and political system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has sought to block the country’s Western path. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of meddling in the elections, the chief Moldovan negotiator with the EU last week said Moscow had pumped some €100 million ($109 million) trying to disrupt the votes.
The election commission said voting had taken place without major disruption. Still, police in the country reported incidents, including efforts to transport or bribe voters, photographing ballots, intimidation and scuffling.
The Kremlin “categorically rejects” allegations that it’s interfering in Moldova’s electoral process, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week, according to the state-run Tass news service.
Mihai Mogaldea, deputy director of the Institute for European Policy and Reforms, said he was confident that votes from Moldovans casting ballots abroad would give the EU referendum a majority.
Sandu, a 52-year-old former World Bank official, has led Moldova since 2020 with an agenda to extricate the country from Moscow’s orbit and integrate it into the West. Polls show she would be favored to defeat Stoianoglo in the second round on Nov. 3.
A procession of EU leaders had visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. The commission chief announced the allocation of a record €1.8 billion to buoy Moldova’s economy.
The campaign has already resulted in a shift for the country wedged between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While most of its biggest trading partner a decade ago was Russia, some 70% of its exports — mostly fruit and wine — now go to the EU.
But Moscow still wields influence. Although the EU has helped the country restore energy supplies cut off by the Kremlin, Russian troops have a presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Gagauzia, an autonomous region to the south of Chisinau, also supports Russia.
The electoral stakes will also rise even further going into next year, when Moldova holds a general election. In that contest, Sandu’s pro-European party may have tougher competition than in the presidential race.
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