(Bloomberg) -- Moldova voted in favor of seeking European Union membership in the coming years by a slim margin as the former Soviet republic sought to break the Kremlin’s decades-long grip.
With votes trickling in from Moldovans voting abroad – a group that tends to overwhelmingly back EU accession – a “yes” vote was ahead by fewer than 10,000 votes. Some 50.3% approve it, according to preliminary results tallied by the Central Electoral Commission in Chisinau.
The outcome — an unexpectedly tight margin for the nation of 2.6 million after polls had shown a consistent majority in favor before the ballot — shows the challenge President Maia Sandu faces in integrating the country into the West and the divisions that remain over the legacy of ties with Russia.
While she secured a first-round victory in the nation’s presidential election on Sunday, Sandu may face a stiffer challenge in a Nov. 3 runoff against a pro-Russian candidate. The president denounced what she called Russian meddling in the contest in an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.”
“Criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies, and propaganda,” Sandu said early Monday, reinforcing a message made repeatedly by her security officials.
She cited findings that some 300,000 voters had been paid off, “a fraud of unprecedented scale,” Sandu said.
In the presidential race, Sandu secured about 42% support, the most among a group of 11 contenders. She’ll likely face Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Kremlin candidate and former prosecutor, in less than two weeks after he came in second with about 26%.
Robin Niblett, a former Chatham House director, said the close vote was a “scrape-through” for Sandu, who was aiming for a boost to her election prospects.
“She’s in a much weaker position,” Niblett told Bloomberg Television.
If the result is approved and cleared by the top court, the referendum means the country’s constitution will be amended to reflect the EU goal, which is likely to take years to obtain. One of Europe’s poorest nations, Moldova began EU accession talks this year after securing candidacy status alongside Ukraine in 2022. Sandu’s government has pledged to overhaul the nation’s justice system and bolster the economy to become a member by 2030.
Disruption Attempts
But Russia, which has dominated Moldova’s energy resources and political system in the more than three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has sought to block the country’s Western path. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of meddling in the elections, the chief Moldovan negotiator with the EU last week said Moscow had pumped some €100 million ($109 million) trying to disrupt the votes.
The election commission said voting had taken place without major disruption. Still, police in the country reported incidents, including efforts to transport or bribe voters, photographing ballots, intimidation and scuffling.
The Kremlin “categorically rejects” allegations that it’s interfering in Moldova’s electoral process, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week, according to the state-run Tass news service.
Sandu, a 52-year-old former World Bank official, has led Moldova since 2020 with an agenda to extricate the country from Moscow’s orbit and integrate it into the West. Polls taken before the Sunday ballot showed that she would be favored to defeat Stoianoglo.
A procession of EU leaders had visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. The commission chief announced the allocation of a record €1.8 billion to buoy Moldova’s economy.
The campaign has already resulted in a shift for the country wedged between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While its biggest trading partner a decade ago was Russia, some 70% of its exports — mostly fruit and wine — now go to the EU.
But Moscow still wields influence. Although the EU has helped the country restore energy supplies cut off by the Kremlin, Russian troops have a presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Gagauzia, an autonomous region to the south of Chisinau, also supports Russia.
The electoral stakes will also rise even further going into next year, when Moldova holds a general election. In that contest, Sandu’s pro-European party may have tougher competition than in the presidential race.
“The parliamentary elections represent the real battle, considering the limited powers that the president in Moldova has,” said Iulian Fota, a Bucharest-based security expert. “Russia clearly has no intentions of giving up Moldova anytime soon.”
(Updates numbers in second paragraph, adds analyst comments in the eighth and final paragraphs.)
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