(Bloomberg) -- Last November, America’s top spy landed in Kinshasa with an unusual offer for the Democratic Republic of Congo’s president, Felix Tshisekedi: The US would share secret intelligence with his government in return for his participation in a cease-fire in one of the world’s longest-running conflicts.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Tshisekedi that the US would highlight the movements of the powerful M23 rebel group that’s active in the eastern DRC, a mineral-rich region home to a conflict that’s raged on-and-off for more than 30 years. Haines made a similar offer to Rwandan President Paul Kagame during a trip to Kigali, which US and United Nations officials say backs M23.
Those meetings initiated what is now almost a year of rare intelligence sharing with both sides, according to senior US officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive negotiations. It marks the most significant Western effort in years to prevent another major outbreak of hostilities in a conflict whose latest flare-up has displaced more than 2 million people and threatens to spiral into a regional conflagration.
US officials tout the engagement as successful “intelligence diplomacy,” but it’s yet to produce real results beyond a temporary — and unstable — cease-fire. It’s also done little to stop M23 from expanding its territory and taking control of much of Congo’s coltan trade. Other minerals including gold and tin are also smuggled to Rwanda, according to the UN.
A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on intelligence matters. A spokesperson for the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on intelligence sharing.
“These efforts by the US have not led to a sustained cessation of hostilities, but it has been the most sustained effort from a foreign actor for a long time,” said Stephanie Wolters, an analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
‘Intelligence Diplomacy’
Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo confirmed the intelligence sharing, calling it “constructive.” The Rwandan government has repeatedly denied backing M23. A person familiar with the DRC’s thinking confirmed the exchanges, but said they’ve done little to halt recent M23 attacks.
The Biden administration used “intelligence diplomacy” most prominently when it downgraded swaths of classified information about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine in 2022. Washington has also boosted intelligence sharing with Asian partners like India to counter Chinese assertiveness.
Surging violence in eastern DRC and ongoing tensions with neighboring Rwanda have further destabilized the resource-rich region since the rebels launched a major offensive in November 2021.
Haines’ visit stemmed from a decision taken by President Joe Biden and his top aides to involve the US more directly in the conflict before crucial DRC elections last December, US officials said.
In the weeks after Haines’ trip, which secured a tentative cease-fire, the DRC and Rwanda dedicated senior officials to join weekly calls with diplomats in the US embassies in Kinshasa and Kigali, as well as a US intelligence official in Washington, one of the officials said.
During these calls — which continue today — each side shares concerns about troop movements and other activities by the other side. US officials would then either corroborate or dispel these concerns in a bid to build trust.
Among other things, the US used these calls and other meetings to tell the Rwandan government to pressure M23 not to move on the cities of Sake and Goma, one of the officials said, as well as to help both sides distinguish between offensive and defensive troop movements.
Though the two sides have largely refrained from hostilities since July, two UN officials tracking the conflict speaking on condition of anonymity said other DRC-backed groups remain active, while M23 troops have continued to take territory around Goma. Aid groups have also reported continued human rights violations and violence.
Still, American diplomacy has managed some tangible results, said two Western officials briefed on the talks.
For example, the DRC has so far complied with US requests to refrain from using Chinese-made drones since the last one available to the army was shot down in February. The DRC has purchased new drones, but not yet deployed them, the officials said.
But Rwanda’s role in the conflict has frustrated American officials, who view the country as an ally.
“I have huge questions about the extent to which Rwanda is serious about engaging the peace process,” said Wolters. “This is an area they feel they can and should be allowed to control.”
--With assistance from Michael J. Kavanagh.
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