(Bloomberg) -- Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump defended his plans to overhaul the US economy through dramatic tariff increases and more direct consultation with the Federal Reserve, arguing that his policies would result in substantial growth despite projections that his agenda would fuel inflation and spike the national debt.
“It’s going to have a massive effect, positive effect,” Trump told Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on Tuesday in an interview at the Economic Club of Chicago.
Throughout the hour-long exchange, Trump repeatedly dismissed predictions by economists that his policies would have a net-negative impact on the economy and pass costs onto US consumers.
The former president shrugged off the possibility that his proposed tariffs might disrupt supply chains or squeeze small businesses, saying companies would rapidly return manufacturing to the US to avoid the levies. He argued that the impact of his plans to deport millions of undocumented migrants would be offset by legal migration. And, he said, his leadership would inspire loyalty rather than anger from allies.
“We’re all about growth,” Trump said. “We’re going to bring companies back to our country.”
The Republican nominee’s claims were warmly received by attendees at the event, who cheered his argument that dramatically increasing tariffs on foreign goods would protect “the companies that we have here and the new companies that will move in.”
The room was packed with about 600 people and a sizable contingent of Trump staffers. Executives in the room included Ashley Duchossois, chair of Duchossois Capital Management, the Chicago-based dynasty that’s known for its ties to the Churchill Downs racetrack and traditionally votes Republican. Carole Brown, Chicago’s former chief financial officer under then-Mayor Rahm Emanuel, attended as a member of the club.
Pat Greco, wearing a red hat with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan and a dark suit, stood out in the ballroom. The 32-year-old corporate attorney said it was his first Trump event, though he had met the former president once before.
“I was shocked he was coming, to be honest,” Greco said before Trump started speaking.
Trump is banking on a similar reception from voters, who are already casting their ballots in what polls forecast to be a razor-thin contest with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris three weeks before Election Day.
Federal Reserve
Trump indicated he would pursue many of the norm-smashing tactics of his first term were he returned to the Oval Office, including seeking greater influence at the Federal Reserve.
While the former president sidestepped a question about whether he would seek to remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, he said it was fair game for a president to tell the central bank’s chief how he thinks interest rates should change.
“If you’re a very good president with good sense, you should be able to at least talk to him,” Trump said, adding that he did not believe a president should be able to mandate change.
Trump also mocked the job of running the Fed.
“It’s the greatest job in government,” Trump said. “You show up to the office once a month and you say, ‘let’s say flip a coin’ and everybody talks about you like you’re a God.”
Federal Deficit
Trump also dismissed concerns over the federal deficit, long a focus of Republican presidential campaigns, arguing without evidence that the totality of his economic platform would outpace the cost to taxpayers.
The former president has vowed to carry out an aggressive campaign of deregulation, renew expiring tax cuts, lower the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%, and offer fresh tax reductions and benefits to bolster domestic manufacturing — policies cheered by prominent Wall Street and corporate leaders.
But the proposals would cost trillions of dollars and threaten to worsen a US federal deficit that’s already historically large. Some investors are betting Trump’s policies will leave the US saddled with more debt and higher inflation and interest rates. America’s annual deficit is already close to $2 trillion.
Trump has sought to offset some of those costs by threatening across-the-board tariffs, which he aims to impose on both US allies and adversaries, including a 60% levy on imports from China and 10% duties on the rest of the world.
Trump said the tariffs would help “tremendously” in preventing China and other countries from flooding the US with products that threatened key industries, like the auto sector.
“China thinks we’re a stupid country. A very stupid country. They can’t believe that somebody finally got wise to them,” he said.
But economists say tariffs are unlikely to create the revenue he needs. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates the tariffs could raise over $200 billion a year. The US took in an estimated $4.9 trillion in revenue in fiscal 2024.
Trump dismissed those projections, saying doubters were simply “wrong” about the impact of tariffs.
“We will grow,” he said. “The only way you can do it is through the threat of tariffs.”
Unproven Assertions
Occasionally testy exchanges included many of the unproven assertions or falsehoods that have peppered Trump’s campaign events, from inaccurate claims about the number of undocumented migrants who have been convicted of murder to claiming fraud was to blame for his defeat in the 2020 election to President Joe Biden.
On migration, Trump acknowledged the concerns of business owners worried his proposed immigration raids could shrink the labor supply, but indicated he would replace those migrants with people coming into the country legally.
“I want a lot of people to come into our country but I want them to come in legally,” Trump said.
During his first term, Trump proposed immigration policies that would have reduced the number of immigrants entering the country and prioritized high-skill workers, which economists warned could impact industries currently reliant on migrant labor.
Capitol Assault
The Republican nominee and allies have said he would accept the 2024 election results if it is a fair process, raising concern of a repeat of Jan. 6, 2021, when Trump’s supporters stormed the US Capitol in a bid to block the certification of Biden’s victory.
Trump sidestepped a question about whether he would commit to respecting a peaceful transfer of power, defending his actions during the attempted insurrection and noting that he left the White House at the end of his term.
“I left the morning that I was supposed to leave, I went to Florida, and you had a very peaceful transfer,” Trump said.
Trump suggested without evidence that individuals beyond his supporters had been responsible for the violence at the Capitol, saying that “a lot of strange things happened,” and generally downplayed the violence. More than 1,400 people have been charged in connection to the incident, according to the Justice Department.
Trump also said that Ashli Babbitt, a supporter who was shot as she attempted to enter a barricaded door at the Capitol, was the only person who died on Jan. 6. A bipartisan Senate report found that at least seven people died in connection with the riot.
US Steel, Google
Trump used the forum to weigh in on some of the biggest stories in business, reiterating his pledge to block the sale of US Steel Corp. to Nippon Steel Corp., if the $14.1 billion transaction was concluded by the time he entered office.
“I think it sets a horrible tone,” he said of the possible sale, saying that steel was a critical national security interest.
“There are certain companies you have to have,” Trump said.
Both Biden and Harris have said they oppose the deal, an election flash point, particularly in swing-state Pennsylvania, where both the American company and the United Steelworkers union — which also opposes the deal — are based.
Separately, Trump wouldn’t commit when asked whether the Justice Department should seek the forced breakup of Google, saying that while he believed something should be done to make the search engine “more fair” it may not require Alphabet Inc. to spin off its parts.
“They do treat me very badly,” Trump said.
The DOJ is weighing whether to break up Google as a remedy after a landmark court ruling found that the company monopolized the online search market.
In August, Trump called for his supporters to stop using the Google search engine, referring to claims from billionaire backer Elon Musk and others that it was interfering with efforts to find information about the former president.
Trump-Putin Relationship
Trump declined to say if he had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin since leaving office in 2021, responding to a question about claims laid out in a new book by journalist Bob Woodward.
“Well, I don’t comment on that, but I will tell you that if I did, it’s a smart thing,” Trump said. “If I’m friendly with people, if I have a relationship with people, that’s a good thing, not a bad thing. “
Woodward’s book cites an unnamed aide to the former president indicating that he spoke to Putin as many as seven times since leaving office. The Trump campaign has called Woodward’s claim “made-up stories.”
Trump defended their relationship, saying their positive ties were a boon to the US and that he had cultivated connections with the Russian leader even though he had sanctioned the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Europe.
Trump and Harris have been ramping up their economic messaging, in particular in the battleground states likely to determine November’s election.
Trump, asked what states he would be watching on election night, said Pennsylvania or Michigan — two of the three that comprise the Democratic Blue Wall crucial to Harris’ prospects — could ultimately prove decisive.
“Based on the votes that are coming in so far, we’re doing very well,” Trump said, pointing to early voting data.
--With assistance from Isis Almeida, Elizabeth Campbell, Kim Chipman, Hadriana Lowenkron, Stephanie Lai and María Paula Mijares Torres.
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