(Bloomberg) -- Russian refined product exports climbed to a three-month high in early October as a surge in fuel oil shipments outpaced a drop in both diesel and naphtha flows.
Average seaborne fuel flows rose to about 2.16 million barrels a day in the first ten days of October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s a modest increase of about 24,000 barrels a day from the previous month and the highest since July.
Russian oil shipments are a key metric for the market to gauge the country’s crude production since Moscow stopped releasing official output data. The drop in oil processing amid ongoing seasonal refinery maintenance has allowed for more crude to be exported.
Four-week average seaborne crude outflows edged up to a three-month high in the week to Oct. 13. Lower refining rates have also curbed the supply of refined products like diesel, while boosting the availability of refinery feedstocks like fuel oil to be shipped elsewhere.
“Russian fuel oil exports have been rising for three consecutive months since July, including the first half of October,” said Pamela Munger, a senior market analyst at Vortexa. “However, growth might be capped by the domestic refineries’ ongoing maintenance, which is expected to end this month.”
Below is a breakdown of shipments from Russian ports during Oct. 1-10.
Diesel and gasoil exports slipped by 2% from a month earlier to about 805,000 barrels a day. Cargoes sailing toward Singapore and the UAE have risen this month, even as Turkey remains the biggest buyer.
Naphtha shipments slumped by 23% to about 270,000 barrels a day, the lowest since Vortexa started collecting data in 2016. Gasoline and blending component exports dropped by 7% to 78,000 barrels a day, while no jet fuel cargoes were observed for the month.
Fuel oil flows surged by 16% to 843,000 barrels day, the highest since April 2023. While most of the shipments sailed toward Asia, cargoes to the Middle East jumped by 12% from the previous month. Shipments of refinery feedstocks like vacuum gasoil also rose by 37% to 162,000 barrels a day.
Cargo volumes and destinations are likely to be revised as more port data or vessel information becomes available.
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