(Bloomberg) -- Florida is bracing for another potentially dangerous and costly hurricane less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene devastated a wide swath of the US Southeast.
Tropical Storm Milton, with winds of 40 miles per hour, is forecast to build into at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph when it makes landfall in western Florida on Oct. 9, the US National Hurricane Center said. Many areas across the state, including Tampa and Orlando, may get as much as 8 inches of rain. Some places might see as much as 12 inches, leading to a risk of flash flooding and rivers overflowing their banks.
“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday,” said Dan Brown, a branch chief at the US center. “Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton.”
Based on current estimates, if Milton strikes Tampa Bay as a major hurricane, damage and losses could reach $100 billion to $200 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. The higher-end losses would require Milton exceeding the current forecast, which the US National Hurricane Center said is possible.
AccuWeather expects the economic impact of Hurricane Helene to be as much as $250 billion, making it one of the five costliest US storms ever. Insured losses would be only a small part of that, with catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark & Co. expecting a cost to insurers of roughly $6.4 billion, according to an early estimate.
Florida residents could face widespread power outages, tornadoes and storm surges over the next week, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said on Saturday.
The storm threat comes less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene tore a path of destruction across the Southeast, leaving behind a humanitarian and economic crisis. There are at least 225 people confirmed dead across six states and countless others have been displaced.
“There was loss of life from storm-surge flooding around the Tampa Bay, St. Pete area,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bill Deger said. “We could see another significant storm surge with the way this storm is coming in.”
Milton’s winds are on track to reach speeds of 40 mph or more, including in parts of southern Georgia and South Carolina, also still reeling from Helene.
The storm is currently expected to evolve into a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale by Monday morning. It could grow into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by the time it hits central Florida on Oct. 9, resulting in considerable damage to trees, structures and other buildings, forecasts predict.
Across the US, natural catastrophes are becoming more expensive and more common as global warming supercharges storms and wildfires. Another massive Atlantic storm in the Southeast could strain commerce, potentially impacting regional ports. It may also stretch federal dollars even further, as US agencies work to distribute resources to help areas hit by Helene recover.
“A landfall hurricane almost always is a multimillion-dollar disaster,” Deger said.
(Updates with Milton storm forecast in second paragraph, Milton cost estimate in fourth paragraph, Helene estimates in fifth paragraph.)
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