(Bloomberg) -- Oil pared gains after President Joe Biden sought to discourage Israel from attacking Iran’s oil fields.
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West Texas Intermediate rose 0.9% to settle above $74 a barrel on Friday, after earlier surging as much as 2.5%. The advance faded after Biden told reporters at the White House, regarding Israeli’s potential retaliation against Iran for its recent missile strike, “If I were in their shoes I would think of other alternatives than attacking oil fields.”
Crude still soared 9.1% this week — the biggest weekly advance since March 2023 — as the escalation of hostilities raises the possibility of disruption to Middle East oil supplies. While Israel and Iran, as well as Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, have been facing off for the past year, this week’s flare-up is stoking fears of an all-out conflict that could drag in other countries.
“While probabilities for worst-case scenarios are very low, everyone is still biting nails for what will happen in the coming days as we await the retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB.
Iran fired a barrage of missiles into Israel earlier this week after Israel stepped up its offensive against Tehran-backed Hezbollah, including by sending troops into southern Lebanon. The Group of Seven nations has called on countries in the region to “act responsibly and with restraint.”
The Middle East accounts for about a third of the world’s crude supply. Iran has been pumping about 3.3 million barrels a day in recent months, making it the No. 3 producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Citigroup Inc. has estimated that a major strike by Israel on Iran’s export capacity could take 1.5 million barrels of daily supply off the market. If Israel struck minor infrastructure, 300,000 to 450,000 barrels may be lost.
There’s also concern that Tehran might raise the stakes by targeting energy infrastructure in neighboring states or supply routes such as the critical Strait of Hormuz. Clearview Energy Partners said an interruption of flows through the waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf could drive crude $13 to $28 a barrel higher.
Others were skeptical about the likelihood of significant market disruption. An attack by Israel against Iran’s oil facilities is the “least likely” option, according to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. Such a move would upset Israel’s partners, including the US, and may also induce a more severe response from Tehran, analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said in a report.
Still, options markets are flashing warning signs as investors bet that oil could rise further.
West Texas Intermediate calls, which profit from price gains, were at the widest premium to the opposite puts in 2 1/2 years as of Thursday’s close. Implied volatility has also spiked.
The crisis has also started to ripple through to the shipping sector, with earnings for oil tankers rallying since the most recent escalation. Iran appears to have moved some of its vessels away from a key oil loading terminal.
Meanwhile, commodity trading advisers, which largely rely on trend-following algorithms, flipped to a net long position in Brent by Friday, compared with being net short by about 55% on Tuesday, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group.
Still, some are cautious.
“The underlying physical market is not reflecting the $7 rally we have seen over this past week,” said Brent Belote, who runs his own energy-focused commodity trading adviser firm Cayler Capital. “This may give a great opportunity to be short should cooler heads prevail.”
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--With assistance from Akayla Gardner and Alex Longley.
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