(Bloomberg) -- While both friends and foes challenge the legitimacy of his claim to have won a new term in office in July, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is using a variety of measures to stay in power.
Maduro’s government has arrested opposition leaders, apprehended thousands who protested his claim to have won the election, and leaned on his alliance with the military’s top leaders, who have helped keep him in power. Edmundo González — the presidential candidate who, according to detailed election results released by the opposition from a majority of polling stations, took nearly 70% of the vote — fled to Spain, saying he was only allowed to leave after being coerced into signing a letter recognizing Maduro as the winner. Opposition leader María Corina Machado is in hiding.
The US has imposed sanctions on 16 officials affiliated with the president for what Washington said was illegitimately extending Maduro’s rule. Partners with close ties to Venezuela’s socialist regime, such as Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have called on the government to release full ballot records, something it has not done.
Here is how Maduro — isolated, embattled and facing a precarious economic situation — is using tactics old and new to remain as leader.
Staying Close to the Military
The armed forces are a key pillar supporting Maduro’s rule. They have stood by his side for his 11 years in power and put down nationwide protests that erupted in 2014 and in 2017 after past abuses of power. In exchange for their loyalty, Maduro has rewarded them with the lucrative control of ports, oil concessions and mining projects. His cabinet is packed with decorated officers, ministry positions have gone to security force members, and state businesses have found room to take on members of the military leadership.
Maduro is borrowing a page from his predecessor and mentor, the late Hugo Chávez, who called for a “civil-military union” when he took power a quarter century ago.
The security forces are heavily indoctrinated, closely surveilled and deliberately structured to safeguard against any potential challenges to Maduro arising from within their ranks. With the loyalty of the top brass secure, Maduro has quashed sporadic plots by military dissidents, including an alleged assassination attempt against him in 2018.
Still, there are risks for Maduro, given that lower-ranking troops are poorly compensated and live in difficult conditions due to shortages of provisions while many top officers live in comfort. To lessen the chances of rebellion, the government has clamped down on dissent within the military barracks. Before July’s vote, half of a total of 287 political prisoners were from the military, accused of treason and jailed in military facilities, according to the Caracas-based legal nonprofit Foro Penal.
Suppressing Popular Dissent
Shortages of food and fuel, unreliable public services, and political unrest have sparked waves of popular protests throughout Maduro’s tenure. The government has responded by enacting laws that allow armed forces to control public demonstrations, criminalize political gatherings, limit media freedom and curtail activities by non-governmental organizations. Those accused of breaking these laws can find themselves in military courts, where they could face penalties on par with those for murder.
After protests over the July vote erupted, government forces cracked down hard. Some 2,400 Venezuelans were detained using “the harshest and most violent mechanisms,” according to a report by the United Nations’ Independent Fact-Finding Mission in Venezuela, which added that the repression resulted in 25 deaths. Security forces scour videos of protests and the phones of those detained looking for more people to bring in. The US State Department said there are credible reports of Maduro’s government using arbitrary killings, forced disappearances and torture to suppress citizens, according to its latest human rights report. “Maduro representatives used the judiciary to intimidate and prosecute individuals critical of their policies or actions, commonly using charges of conspiracy, terrorism, and treason to arrest individuals,” it said.
Providing Modest Economic Improvements
Even with US sanctions in place, Maduro has led Venezuela out of one of the world’s longest bouts of hyperinflation, in part by sticking with fiscal cuts and curbs on money printing. The government has loosened some price controls and regulations on businesses, allowing for an increase in industrial output compared to levels that stalled during the pandemic, which followed seven years of recession. The overall result has been decade-low monthly inflation, a rebound in economic growth and record-high tax collection.
At the same time, the bolivar has tumbled in unofficial markets. The de facto dollarization of the economy has raised costs for Venezuelans, 82% of whom live in poverty. And though Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, has recovered from exports hitting a 70-year low following US sanctions, it hasn’t reached its output target of 1 million barrels a day — a third of what the country pumped in the 1990s.
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