(Bloomberg) -- The leader of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party said he’ll start negotiations on a new government coalition after an historic victory — yet one that may still not grant Herbert Kickl the top job.
His group is set to about 29% of votes, according to a projection by state broadcaster ORF based on almost two-thirds of ballots counted. The People’s Party of Chancellor Karl Nehammer is estimated to have received 26% with the Social Democrats at 21%.
“The people have spoken,” Kickl said Sunday. “We are ready to lead a government and to drive change together with the people.”
As chief of the largest party for the first time, he would traditionally be asked to start talks to find partners to run the government, but his ambition to lead Austria will face the reality of coalition arithmetic — and his rivals’ determination to block his ascent.
That resembles political patterns across Europe. In Germany, anti-AfD alliances have kept the far-right from power in regional parliaments. A left-wing alliance in France stopped Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from scoring an election victory in July.
For Kickl, 55, the fact that he’s considered a toxic presence by most competitors doesn’t help. He’s pledged to deport asylum seekers and stop supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.
Nehammer has vowed not to make him chancellor in a coalition government, and repeated that pledge on Sunday.
Kickl, in turn, has promised not to hand the People’s Party the top job if he beats them, saying a similar move in 1999 by his predecessor and mentor, Jörg Haider, had been a mistake.
The Freedom Party’s victory is part of a broader trend in Europe, which has seen strong results from anti-migrant parties in the Netherlands, Belgium and a few German states. Kickl has mentioned Viktor Orban’s Hungary as a model for his policy. Alice Weidel, the co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD, congratulated him on Sunday.
A centrist Austrian government involving the conservatives and the Social Democrats — a mainstay of post-World War II politics for decades — would probably need backing from a smaller, third party, such as the liberal NEOS or the Greens.
Socialist leader Andreas Babler said Sunday he would be willing to consider a coalition with Nehammer.
Finding common ground for a coalition program will be an arduous task, even in a nation used to consensual rule between its two historical parties. Still, the wish to keep the Freedom Party out of government could propel such a alliance.
Austrian coalition negotiations have traditionally taken months, not weeks, so the talks could stretch into next year. Nehammer’s existing team will continue to govern in the meantime.
The likely coalition wrangling comes at a difficult time for Austria, which is set for a second year of economic contraction and is only now recovering from a bout of high inflation that often surpassed its euro-area peers.
Exit interviews of voters showed that immigration and sticky inflation drove support for the Freedom Party.
--With assistance from Kristian Siedenburg.
(Updates election projection in second paragraph, adds background from fourth.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
