(Bloomberg) -- China’s latest policy blitz is fueling a rally in everything from iron ore and copper to Asian stocks, and traders are betting on more aid to drive further gains.
In the wake of Tuesday’s announcement, emerging-market equities climbed to the highest in over two years while iron ore headed back toward $100 a ton. The Thai baht jumped to levels last seen in March 2022, and Malaysia’s ringgit appreciated to the strongest since mid-2021.
Confidence is building that China’s markets may finally be on the cusp of a sustainable rebound after years of decline fueled by slowing growth and a prolonged property crisis. But the optimism is tempered by caution, with market watchers noting that similar rallies in the past were shortlived as focus quickly shifted back to the nation’s economic troubles.
“We do think that there will be a follow up to the stimulus,” said Shamaila Khan, head of emerging market and Asia Pacific fixed income at UBS Asset Management. The next package is likely to be fiscal, and “that’s positive for Asian currencies, it’s positive for commodities,” she said.
Beijing’s latest efforts triggered 24 hours of buying of China-related assets, including the Australian dollar and industrial metals. Asian shares were a key beneficiary given the region’s trade links with China, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing to the highest level since February 2022 on Wednesday.
“Fiscal follow-up will be the key,” BNP Paribas SA economists including Jacqueline Rong wrote in a note. The latest measures “exceeded our expectations and combined with support policies on the property and equity front, should boost risk appetite, especially given how low market expectations were.”
Jonathan Pines, head of Asia ex-Japan at Federated Hermes, described the package as a “multifaceted, strong” approach, which underscored the government’s seriousness in tackling China’s problems. Jun Bei Liu of hedge fund Tribeca Investment Partners Pty said conversations with China contacts indicated they’re all “very bullish” right now.
The next few days may be crucial in determining if the rally continues.
Authorities may announce more fiscal measures as President Xi Jinping’s 24-member Politburo is set to meet ahead of a week-long annual holiday starting Tuesday. Potential moves include more funding to buy up unsold homes and greater spending on social welfare. The finance ministry can also push local governments to sell more bonds to ramp up infrastructure spending.
Some market watchers are calling for caution, noting that there are risks on the horizon. This includes the upcoming US presidential election and threats of further tariffs if Donald Trump wins. Escalating trade tensions may soften demand for risk assets again.
Timefolio Asset Management Co. and Magellan Investments Holding Ltd. note that other issues persist, including weak demand, China’s property-market woes and a deflationary spiral.
For now, the rally in risk assets may have scope to extend.
“This is a short-lived, legitimate risk-on signal to buy,” said George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management. “That is, until another big bazooka is required. You need a lot more from China.”
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(Updates with details on iron ore and Asian currencies in second paragraph and Asian shares in fifth paragraph)
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