(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s central bank will probably discuss interest-rate cuts at its November meeting, but there is no pre-determined path for monetary policy and the decision will be driven by economic data between now and then, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
The bank will focus primarily on inflation, which authorities predict will gradually slow to 38% by the end of this year, compared with 52% in August, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
The central bank did not immediately comment. It has repeatedly said it wants to see a sustained decline in monthly inflation before changing policy.
Turkey Hints Rate Cut Is Closer After Sixth Straight Hold
Some bank analysts have said a rate cut in November is more likely after the central bank appeared to soften its forward guidance in a statement accompanying its policy decision on Thursday. The bank dropped an explicit pledge for further tightening of monetary stance should there be a need, while maintaining its key rate at 50% for a sixth consecutive month.
Still, not every analyst interpreted the statement in the same way. Garanti BBVA analysts pushed back their rate-cut forecast by a month to December, while Morgan Stanley said it “increased the chances of an earlier cut” relative to its own prediction for a reduction in the first quarter of next year.
Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG are all anticipating a cut in November.
“We continue to believe the most probable time for the kick-start of the easing cycle is November,” UBS analysts Gyorgy Kovacs and Nimrod Mevorach said on Thursday. The bank said “key signposts” it will be watching for are actual inflation figures over the next two months, the bank’s quarterly inflation report in November and any news about what next year’s minimum wage will be set at.
Central bank Governor Fatih Karahan is scheduled to give fresh inflation projections on Nov. 8 when the bank releases its final inflation report for the year. Karahan will address Turkish lawmakers on Oct. 3 to discuss price increases and monetary policy, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency. Inflation data for September will be published on the same day.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
