(Bloomberg) -- In 1975, colonial power Spain abandoned Western Sahara, and Morocco swooped in to claim the territory as its own. Some of the indigenous Sahrawi population rebelled against their new rulers, supported by Morocco’s neighbor Algeria.
The dispute has rumbled on to this day, with long periods of uneasy peace punctuated by occasional outbreaks of fighting. Meanwhile, Morocco has cemented its control over what it calls its “southern provinces,” developing the local economy and deploying tax incentives and subsidies to encourage Moroccans to relocate there.
Today, its hold over the roughly three-quarters of Western Sahara that it administers has never been so strong. The US, Spain and, recently, France have all agreed to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the territory.
Yet obstacles remain to a fuller resolution of the conflict that would ease political tensions across the wider region.
Why did France recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara?
France has maintained warm ties with Morocco since its former protectorate declared independence in 1956, but avoided taking sides over the issue of Western Sahara.
In recent years, Morocco’s relations with France took a turn for the worse due to a spat over an alleged spying attempt by Morocco, a visa dispute and French moves to improve ties with Morocco’s regional rival Algeria.
In 2020, the US under then-President Donald Trump agreed to recognize Moroccan dominion over Western Sahara as a quid pro quo for Morocco’s recognition of Israel — part of the Abraham Accords aimed at normalizing relations between the Jewish state and the Arab world. Spain then recognized Morocco’s claim in 2022.
Morocco’s King Mohammed VI has lately adopted a more assertive tone on Western Sahara, warning countries close to the kingdom in August 2022 that the territory’s status was an anchor of his country’s foreign policy and a prerequisite for future economic cooperation.
In July this year, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that limited autonomy for Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty was the “only basis” for solving the conflict. The decision dealt a blow to the Sahrawi pro-independence Polisario Front that claims to be the only legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people.
What’s in it for France?
Maintaining good relations with Morocco could help to shore up French security interests in the region bordering the Sahara, where a succession of military coups have toppled governments that had cooperated with France in combating militant Islamist groups.
Morocco has struck economic and defense agreements with some of those countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad. It already has a foothold in many West African nations through investments in finance, mining and telecommunications.
France’s shift will also help to secure its status as Morocco’s dominant economic partner. France is eyeing multi-billion dollar contracts that Morocco plans to award for new infrastructure and clean energy projects. The government in Rabat wants to extend a high-speed railway, build nuclear power plants and invest more in food production, green hydrogen and desalination.
Morocco plans to establish a highway and rail link to connect landlocked nations in the Sahel, a semi-arid region on the southern fringe of the Sahara, to a proposed $1 billion deep-sea port and economic zone in Western Sahara. Morocco and Nigeria have agreed to build a pipeline to pump natural gas from West Africa northward around the Atlantic coastline. The link would pass by Western Sahara and some of the gas would be exported to Europe.
What are the risks of recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara?
Morocco says its claim to Western Sahara derives from bonds of allegiance between Moroccan sultans and tribes inhabiting the disputed region that were formed long before the arrival of European colonial powers. But its sovereignty over the territory is still not recognized by most of the world.
Siding with Morocco is likely to open Western powers to charges of hypocrisy as they try to convince wavering nations to oppose Moscow’s claim that Ukraine is sovereign Russian territory, and to support Kyiv’s campaign to expel occupying Russian forces.
France’s move has also put a cool relationship with its former colony Algeria into the deep-freeze.
France remains a significant importer of Algerian gas and the North African country’s biggest investor outside of the energy sector. Millions of France’s citizens are of Algerian descent, ensuring the French consulate in Algiers is always busy. And France needs Algeria’s help in efforts to confront Islamist groups active in the region.
With their shared history and those significant economic ties, the two countries have always maintained at least some cooperation. But even this is now under threat.
How have Polisario and Algeria reacted to Morocco’s diplomatic wins?
Algeria has long viewed Morocco as a national security threat and accuses it of nurturing expansionist ambitions. The border between the two neighbors has been closed for the past three decades, disrupting their respective economies.
France’s shift in stance drew condemnation from Algeria, which accused its former colonial ruler of endangering the broader region and withdrew its ambassador from Paris.
Mohamed Sidati, foreign minister of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic proclaimed by Polisario in 1976, said France’s move was an effort to shore up its waning influence in Africa, and was at odds with international law.
Weeks before the US changed its stance, Polisario quit a UN-brokered ceasefire deal that had held since the early 1990s.
Since then, it has launched occasional attacks on Moroccan positions, to little effect. The return to arms underscored the frustration of younger Sahrawis living in refugee camps that were set up in Algerian-held territory when their parents and grandparents were displaced early in the conflict.
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