(Bloomberg) -- Russian data show the nation was very close to meeting its OPEC+ crude-output target last month, following a push from the group to improve adherence to its supply deal.
The nation produced 8.983 million barrels a day of crude in August, said people familiar with data from the Energy Ministry, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the figures aren’t public.
That’s down 62,000 barrels a day from July levels and only about 5,000 barrels a day above Moscow’s output target in the agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. The extra barrels represent less than 0.06% of the nation’s output in August.
Russia’s Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Russia, the largest crude producer in OPEC+, had also been one of the group’s principal laggards in implementing the supply agreement, which is intended to shore up global prices. Moscow has pledged to make extra cuts to compensate for previous months’ overproduction.
OPEC’s monthly market report puts Russia’s August output at 9.059 million barrels a day, based on estimates from secondary sources. That’s 81,000 barrels a day above the target.
Improved compliance of the laggard nations has become a focus for OPEC+ as the alliance aims to demonstrate discipline amid falling prices. Last week, in response to a recent price decline, OPEC+ postponed by two months a supply hike planned for October, but the move wasn’t enough to spur a price recovery.
Russia will make small compensation adjustments in October and November, yet the bulk of the extra curbs will only come next summer, as geological conditions in its main oil provinces make winter cuts challenging.
Moscow has been implementing two sets of curbs to its crude production. The first 500,000 barrel-a-day reduction was announced early last year, followed later by a 471,000 barrel-a-day cut promised in March that is set to last until the end of November, following the OPEC+ decision last week. The cuts are made from the baseline level of 9.949 million barrels a day.
Russia has classified official output data amid Western sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, leaving oil market watchers with just a few gauges, such as seaborne oil exports and domestic refinery runs, to follow trends in the industry.
Earlier this year, Moscow also changed the way it reports data used to compile OPEC+ production estimates, making independent assessment of compliance with output cuts more difficult. The Energy Ministry now reports the data in barrels per day and appears to be using a ton-to-barrel ratio at the lower end of the traditional conversion factors used by analysts for Russia’s crudes.
(Updates with output estimate from OPEC report in sixth paragraph.)
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