(Bloomberg) -- Even as Nicolás Maduro’s legitimacy at home and abroad withers further following Venezuela’s highly contested election, he still has one advantage: The US can’t afford to hit him where it hurts most.
Rescinding licenses on energy companies operating in Venezuela would only risk worsening the country’s precarious economic situation and could contribute to an exodus in a US election year where migration is front and center. Instead, the US Treasury is expected to take a targeted, more personal tack around Maduro’s electoral apparatus by individually sanctioning 15 officials it says helped obstruct the July 28 vote.
“The US is looking for ways to symbolically respond to the election without exacerbating domestic policy vulnerabilities like migration and higher oil prices before November’s election,” said Eurasia Group analyst Risa Grais-Targow. While “that leaves more space for a negotiation and multilateral approach, I don’t see Maduro under a lot of pressure to leave power.”
The thinking is that if the US can make life difficult for Maduro’s allies and enablers, they just might reconsider their loyalty to an autocratic leader who claimed victory in an election that many international officials say was fraudulent.
While individual sanctions “can exert some pressure in strategic areas where individuals may not be expecting to be hit,” it’s unlikely to effect change before Maduro is sworn in for a third term in January, said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
That four-month window is a crucial opportunity for the US and international community to pressure Maduro into talks before he takes office for another six years. Plus, regional and parliamentary elections will be held next year.
That urgency is underscored by just how quickly Venezuela’s leader has created the most oppressive iteration of his government yet, borrowing from Cuban-style policing tactics to clamp down on protests and intimidate dissenters.
“I certainly think the United States should do much more,” opposition leader María Corina Machado said during a virtual press conference on Thursday. “These oil companies should understand that it’s in their best interest, as well as Venezuelan creditors, for a transition to democracy as fast as possible.”
Except for a few public appearances, Machado has been in hiding in Venezuela since early August, fearful of being arrested by the regime.
Just days after the vote, the government’s police forces detained 2,400 protesters, including more than 100 minors. Maduro and his top officials spread terror through a widely publicized security operation called “Tun-Tun,” or “Knock-Knock.” State television broadcast videos of intelligence police barging into protesters’ homes to arrest them. Images shared from some of Caracas’ biggest slums showed that intelligence police had painted black Xs on the homes of opposition supporters.
Most recently, Maduro detained four prominent opposition politicians and ordered the arrest of presidential candidate Edmundo González.
“Individual targeted sanctions in light of repression at this scale are unlikely to make a difference in Maduro’s calculus,” said Carrie Filipetti, executive director of Washington-based Vandenberg Coalition.
“The Biden administration needs to show leadership here and make it clear there are real consequences,” Filipetti said. “There’s a narrowing window in which we can effectively do that before Maduro illegally inaugurates himself again.”
The most effective approach the US could take is to go after the individual licenses held by oil companies, said Berg. Most of the sanctions were reinstated in April after the regime reneged on the deal for fair and free elections struck in Barbados last year, but Washington has allowed a few oil majors to keep buying and producing Venezuelan crude, including Reliance, Repsol and Maurel & Prom. Chevron Corp.’s license to operate was renewed for another six months starting Sept. 1, allowing it to keep pumping around 200,000 barrels a day.
Machado repeatedly avoided referring to this specific option in her latest presser.
While Maduro was able to get by during the harshest years of the US’s oil blockade, he relied on allies to circumvent the sanctions and still couldn’t avoid the economic fallout.
Now, as he clings to power, the oil industry is the main driver keeping Venezuela’s economy afloat. Hard currency supply from foreign operators like Chevron has played a major role in bringing Venezuela’s inflation to new lows. Analysts estimate Venezuela’s output may increase to 1 million barrels of oil a day in 2025, before stagnating the following year.
That’s why, at least for now, Maduro can “probably survive” with the political and economic support of the “authoritarian axis,” including China, Russia, North Korea and others, said Berg.
“He won’t have too many friends,” he said, “but he can survive.”
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