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OPEC Output Steady as Libya Losses Offset by Gains Elsewhere

(Bloomberg) -- OPEC’s oil production was little changed last month, as disruption in Libya was offset by marginal gains in other members.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.06 million barrels a day in August, or about 70,000 per day less than the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Libyan daily output fell by 150,000 barrels, while Nigeria and Kuwait increased slightly.

Losses in the North African nation had limited effect because they were concentrated in the final days of the month. Its production slumped by more than 500,000 barrels a day — or roughly 50% — in the last week of August amid a feud between two rival governments over control of the central bank. 

Brent crude prices on Tuesday slumped to the lowest this year after Libya’s ousted central bank governor predicted an agreement that will restore crude flows. The global oil benchmark slumped almost 5% to trade below $74 a barrel, too low for many OPEC members to cover government spending.

Traders are also concerned that the cartel will proceed with plans to start gradually reviving idle output from October, despite signs of faltering demand in key consumer China. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC and its allies have been withholding supplies since late 2022 in a bid to shore up prices.

The group continues to face challenges with ensuring that members implement their share of supply curbs, the survey showed.

While nations like Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Kuwait are abiding by their quotas, Iraq hasn’t yet cut fully cut production, despite repeated promises to do so.

Baghdad pumped 4.32 million barrels a day in August, or 320,000 above its agreed limit, according to the survey. Iraq has often chafed against OPEC+ restraints as it seeks cash to rebuild an economy shattered by decades of conflict and sanctions.

Along with fellow OPEC+ laggards Kazakhstan and Russia, Iraq has pledged additional cuts to compensate for the initial cheating. But none of the trio has yet stuck to its quota, let alone begun the work of compensation.

Bloomberg’s survey is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials and estimates from consultants, including FGE, Kpler Ltd. and Rapidan Energy Group.

--With assistance from Anthony Di Paola, Verity Ratcliffe, Prejula Prem, Lucia Kassai and John Deane.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.