(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s real trimmed earlier losses in a day marked by steep swings after the central bank announced it would intervene in the currency market for the second time today, offsetting concern over the nation’s deteriorating fiscal outlook.
The real is down 0.1% after the central bank’s said it would auction up to 30,000 FX swaps, the equivalent of almost $1.5 billion. The move comes on top of a dollar spot sale earlier in the day, the central bank’s first intervention in years.
News of the original intervention had helped the real to open higher, before a report on the fiscal deficit sent it plummeting as much as 1.1%, the most in emerging markets. Brazil’s primary budget deficit was 21.3 billion reais ($3.8 billion) in July, triple the 6.9 billion-real shortfall forecast by analysts.
“The fiscal outlook is deteriorating and even the prospects of a 50bps hike in September is having little impact on BRL,” said Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. “Until the policy mix becomes more sustainable, I think BRL remains under pressure.”
The sale of $1.5 billion on the spot market early on Friday was made in a single auction, with central bank President Roberto Campos Neto signaling it was done to offset the impact of MSCI Inc. index’s re-balancing on Sept. 2.
“There’s an atypical flow movement due to the re-balancing of an index, and we are looking at what we understand is a very large detachment from the fundamentals,” Campos Neto said. “If further interventions are necessary, we will do so.”
Campos Neto went on to say that the risk premium priced into the swaps curve is not compatible with the message from the central bank and that a Selic adjustment, if it happens, will be gradual. Following his remarks, short-term maturing swap rates reversed their intraday direction, with those maturing in January 2025 and 2026 dropping.
Concern over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s spending policies and the future path for interest rates has helped make the real the worst performing currency in emerging markets this year, down more than 14% versus the dollar.
“The fiscal outlook is bad and Lula is making no effort to fix it, so the real is likely to continue underperforming,” said Thin. “We could see some stability near-term but I don’t see a turnaround until the fiscal outlook improves.”
--With assistance from Maria Eloisa Capurro.
(Recasts BN with FX swaps auction, comments from Roberto Campos Neto.)
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