(Bloomberg) -- More than 7 million people have been displaced by violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, one of Africa’s most volatile regions, and fears have been simmering of a heightened conflict. President Felix Tshisekedi has accused his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame of supporting a rebel group known as M23. Kagame denied the allegation and countered that Tshisekedi’s inability to control events in his own country poses a security risk to Rwanda. The acrimony escalated in early 2024, with the rebels expanding their territory around the trading hub of Goma and seizing control of key routes including those used to export tantalum, a key mineral in portable electronics. Angola brokered a truce between the two nations that was supposed to come into effect in early August, but it’s unclear if M23 will stick to it.
1. Why is the situation so fraught?
Rwanda says its biggest concern is the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, one of more than 120 armed groups that are active in eastern Congo. The FDLR was created by ethnic Hutus from Rwanda with links to the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide in their country that left at least 850,000 people dead. Most of the victims were ethnic Tutsis. M23 said it’s been fighting the FDLR to protect Congolese Tutsis who face discrimination. Congo’s army has worked with the FDLR, whose ranks have been decimated over the past decade, to fight M23 and other adversaries. Tshisekedi’s administration has argued that what Rwanda is really interested in is Congo’s bountiful minerals, and any other issues raised were merely a smokescreen.
2. What triggered the resurgence in violence?
A military buildup along the countries’ shared border including drones and anti-aircraft weapons as well as anti-Rwandan rhetoric during Tshisekedi’s re-election campaign in late 2023 heightened tensions between Rwanda, the rebels and the Congolese government. In February, Congo said M23 had indiscriminately bombed Goma, home to 2 million people and a major humanitarian hub. The city is surrounded by the rebels, who’ve expanded their territory across North Kivu province, displacing more than 1.8 million people, according to the United Nations. Rwanda has accused Congo of staging a massive combat operation in North Kivu province with the aim of expelling M23 and Congolese Tutsi civilians into neighboring countries.
3. What’s happening with Congo’s resources?
While M23 hasn’t historically been involved in the metal trade, Congo and UN experts accuse the group of smuggling minerals to Rwanda, particularly tin ore and tantalum. In April, lawyers for the Congolese government raised the stakes by sending a letter to smartphone maker Apple Inc., alleging that its products contained metal from Rwanda that was stolen from Congo. The situation deteriorated further when M23 attacked the town of Rubaya, home to the richest deposits of tantalum ore in Congo, the world’s largest producer of the metal. For the past year, Rubaya’s mines have been under the control of armed groups allied with Congo’s army. The UN group of experts on Congo says minerals from the area are fueling the conflict and are “ineligible for trade” under the group’s guidelines. UN reports show Rwanda has long profited from the region’s natural riches, including forests and pasture land. The US and European Union have branded Congo’s gold, tin, tantalum and tungsten as conflict minerals, which was supposed to improve monitoring efforts that would make it harder for armed groups to benefit from their trade, but the effect has been limited. UN experts say these minerals often transit through Rwanda and nearby Uganda.
4. What are the politics?
While Congo is almost 90 times bigger than Rwanda and is far more populous, Rwanda has emerged as the more politically stable of the two and its formidable military has added to its regional clout. Kagame’s authoritarian leadership style and refusal to tolerate opposition has, however, scarred his reputation and alienated a number of his peers. Some Congo experts say recent tensions may be partly related to Rwandan concern about neighboring Uganda expanding its interests in eastern Congo. Uganda has long been the main processing hub for smuggled Congolese gold, according to UN experts. In recent years, Tshisekedi has welcomed both Ugandan contractors into his country to build trade routes and Ugandan troops to fight rebel groups, encroaching on territory where Rwanda has been a key political power broker.
5. What are the odds of the truce holding?
Fairly slim if previous ceasefires are anything to go by — most have lasted barely a few weeks. M23 said it wasn’t bound by any deal struck at a meeting it never attended, although it was ready to respect the truce. While an all-out confrontation between Congo and Rwanda is considered unlikely, the risk can’t be completely ruled out. The UN experts say at least 3,000 members of the Rwanda Defense Force were deployed to Congo to support M23, which is itself accused of committing massacres. There hasn’t been a full-scale war in the region since Rwanda and Uganda invaded Congo in 1998 after they fell out with its then-president, Laurent Desire Kabila. The conflict drew in several other African nations and claimed millions of lives before a peace deal was agreed to in 2003.
6. What is the international community doing?
The UN has had peacekeeping troops in Congo for 25 years, while East African Community soldiers were deployed there in 2023. Those forces have withdrawn and been replaced by a Southern African Development Community mission, comprising personnel from South Africa, Tanzania and Malawi. While Western nations have backed Kagame with billions of dollars in development aid, they’ve become increasingly vocal critics of his role in eastern Congo. The US State Department has called on Rwanda to immediately withdraw all its forces and surface-to-air missile systems from Congo. Rwanda has shrugged off criticism of its conduct, saying it didn’t reflect the situation on the ground. The US and European Union lauded the recent truce, and the UN has said it is ready to support a “verification mechanism” to ensure it is adhered to.
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