(Bloomberg) -- Islamic State-backed insurgents in Mozambique who’ve been operating near a $20 billion liquefied natural gas project that TotalEnergies SE aims to resume this year are becoming increasingly active and are employing more sophisticated tactics, a United Nations report warned this week.
Mozambique had pushed the rebels back with the help of troops from a southern African bloc and Rwanda, but there has been a resurgence in violence this year in the northeastern Cabo Delgado province. The regional military mission completed a withdrawal last month, raising the risk of even more conflict.
“The situation in Cabo Delgado Province is more fluid following a change in the security landscape,” the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team said in a report to the UN Security Council. “There has been a spike in carefully orchestrated attacks.”
Most of the recent attacks have occurred at least 80 kilometers (50 miles) away from the LNG project, which was put on hold due to security concerns in 2021. Just last month, TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said the company hoped to move forward with the project by the end of the year given that the situation was much improved.
The UN report refers to the rebels as Ahl al-Sunna wal-Jama‘a, an early name for the group that now claim attacks under the Islamic State Mozambique banner, and says it has increased operations in the first half of 2024. That coincided with the phased withdrawal of the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique forces.
The group has as many as 350 fighters, who’ve organized themselves into three main groups of roughly equal size, the report said. The UN estimated in a January report there were less than 200 rebels.
“ASWJ has again sought to broaden the theater of conflict,” overextending the Mozambican forces and those of its allies and its tactics “are more sophisticated, calculated and well-executed,” the report said.
It pointed to a May 10 attack on the large town of Macomia, which risk management company Focus Group said showed the insurgents’ sustained ability to carry out large-scale attacks. They occupied the town for more than 24 hours, before leaving May 12 with looted goods and stolen vehicles, Focus said in report last month.
That counters a Mozambican government statement at the time, which said its troops repelled the attack after 45 minutes of fighting.
Rwanda deployed an additional 2,000 troops after the Southern African Development Community withdrew its forces. Attacks in the districts closest to the LNG project have largely ceased, but there have been some smaller skirmishes.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.