CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals have maintained their six-point lead over the Conservatives on Day 21 of the 36-day federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 11 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 37 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party is now up a point at 10, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
Regional support
Regionally, chief data scientist Nik Nanos said Liberal support is “strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia.”
The Conservatives saw gains earlier this week in seat-rich Ontario where they reached 41 per cent, but they’re back down now to 35 per cent -- versus the Liberals who are at 51 per cent.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives continue to dominate with 56 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 28 per cent for the Liberals; and in B.C., where Conservatives have pulled ahead with 42 per cent and lead the Liberals by four points.
The Liberals continue their strong lead in Quebec and are at 43 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 22. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place at 25 per cent.
The Liberals’ lead in the Atlantic region has shrunk, meanwhile, with 51 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 46 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at three per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney still has a comfortable lead, with 48 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who sits at 34 per cent.
By gender and age
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Forty-six per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 31 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Twelve per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is up a few points at 40 per cent, compared with 44 for the Conservatives (down three). Only six per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
“Conservatives also do well among voters under 35,” said Nanos, “while the Liberals do well among older voters.” Over 50 per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 35 for the Conservatives in that age range.
For those 18 to 34, Conservatives are at 40 per cent, versus 34 per cent for the Liberals.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 9 to 11, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
