CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals’ advantage over the Conservatives has narrowed to six points on Day 15 of the federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 5 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives at 37 per cent.
The New Democratic Party has fallen a point to eight per cent—a “new numeric low” for the party—followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent).
“In the post Trump ‘Liberation Day’ period the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
“Of note, since the election tracking began, Liberal fortunes improved with a focus on Trump. In the post Liberation Day period, the trajectory is remaking itself. This speaks to an environment where the Trump role, or lack of a role, may be a determining factor in the fortunes of the front runners.”
Regional support
Nanos said the Conservatives have seen gains in “seat rich Ontario,” where they saw a 5.5-point boost in support compared to the previous day and now sit at 41 per cent. The Liberals, meanwhile, dropped five points in the province and now sit at 48 per cent.
The Liberals continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 55 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 28 per cent for the Liberals.
The Liberals are maintaining their lead in Quebec but are down four points compared to yesterday and sit at 48 per cent, compared with the Conservatives who remain at 16 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to who Canadians prefer to become prime minister, “Carney remains ahead of Poilievre significantly,” said Nanos. Fifty per cent chose Carney compared to 31 per cent for Poilievre.
Gender divide
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women are more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Fifty per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals; compared with 29 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent compared with 45 per cent for the Conservatives.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 3 to 5, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
