(Bloomberg) -- Even as Russia seems to have the upper hand in its invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin faces a growing number of challenges that will complicate any effort to lock in its gains, the outgoing Pentagon chief said.
“There’s a thought that Russia has the ultimate hand here and it has every advantage,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “It has some advantages, but it doesn’t completely dominate this equation here. And if it gets what it wants, it will cost them in the future.”
That consideration should figure in any push for a ceasefire that the incoming administration of Donald Trump might undertake, Austin said. He spoke in Ramstein, Germany, ahead of a regular gathering of Ukraine’s allies to coordinate weapons supplies, his last in the role before Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
Trump has said he wants to end the war in Ukraine quickly, and his advisers have signaled that a deal could leave Russian President Vladimir Putin in control of the almost 20% of Ukrainian territory his forces now occupy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also softened his stance in recent weeks by suggesting his government could use diplomatic means to recover its land as Russian forces have advanced steadily.
The Russians “are not without challenges, as well,” Austin said. “They’ve gone to DPRK, to Iran to get assistance, weapons and munitions and also now people.” North Korea has sent thousands of troops to Russia, according to Kyiv and its allies. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to build out its capabilities, Austin said.
Occupying large swaths of Ukraine will also require substantial resources even after a ceasefire, he said. “Russia will have to invest a lot of land forces to hold it,” he said.
Zelenskiy is also due to join the defense officials in Ramstein, where the US will tout its final $500 million dollars in US military assistance it will provide Ukraine.
Austin pushed back against criticism by some European and Ukrainian officials that President Joe Biden’s administration lacked a clear strategy in supporting Ukraine.
“What it did was it helped Ukraine survive, it helped Ukraine defend its sovereign territory,” Austin said of the strategy. “The loss of 700,000 troops killed and wounded - that would’ve been beyond imagination three years ago” for Russia when its full-scale invasion began, he said.
He pointed to Syria as another example of the strategic success in helping Ukraine counter Russia. Because Putin committed so much to his effort in Ukraine, he was unable to aid his ally, now-toppled dictator Bashar al-Assad, Austin said.
Without access to a key naval base in Syria, that now puts into question Putin’s ability to support his efforts in Africa, Austin said.
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