(Bloomberg) -- For decades, he was President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s political rival.
Now his boss’s health issues have put Geraldo Alckmin at the center of questions about Brazil’s future.
As the country’s vice president, Alckmin represents exactly what the leader known universally as Lula wants in a deputy: a hard worker who avoids conflict and is content to stay out of the spotlight.
The paradox is that many investors and business leaders consider him better equipped than the incumbent to respond to the growing economic and political challenges that are besieging Latin America’s largest nation.
The emergency operation Lula underwent last week came at a difficult time for his government, which is trying to push a package of spending cuts through Congress in a bid to calm investor fears over Brazil’s soaring fiscal deficit. The real has plunged more than 20% this year amid skepticism of his commitment to curbing spending, and the central bank is hiking double-digit interest rates even higher in a bid to contain rising inflation.
A trained medical doctor and a former governor of Brazil’s financial heart, São Paulo, Alckmin is adored by the Brazilian elite. He’s also widely regarded as effective in his dual role as minister for development, industry and foreign trade. That helps to explain the positive market reaction as Lula was treated for bleeding of the brain.
Alckmin, who declined an interview request, goes to great lengths to show he’s loyal to Lula and not a would-be usurper. But he may have to step up regardless if Lula’s health problems persist and force the president to make way.
“He is an experienced politician, austere, not an opportunist, and has a reformist vision,” said Marcus Pestana, director of the Senate’s fiscal studies center, known as IFI, who knows him from his time as a congressman for Alckmin’s party. His track record in Sao Paulo “gives this correct perception of stability and moderation,” said Pestana.
Lula is for now still planning to run for reelection in 2026. And Alckmin, 72, having lost two presidential campaigns already and with the far-right forces of former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro gathering, would potentially only be a stopgap solution in any case.
That he’s still around now — and part of a leftist government — is remarkable in itself.
Longtime Adversaries
Alckmin typifies the conservative Brazilian establishment that Lula built a career on opposing. A devout Catholic, Alckmin was born in the countryside town of Pindamonhangaba into a political family that produced a former Supreme Court justice and a vice president during Brazil’s period of military rule.
As the nation transitioned back to democracy in the late 1980s, Alckmin co-founded the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) that would serve as the nemesis of Lula’s Workers’ Party for the next three decades. The PSDB ruled the country for eight years under President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who beat Lula in both the 1994 and 1998 elections.
What Bloomberg Economics Says
Alckmin won the support and admiration of markets and economic elites after running two presidential campaigns on a sound pro-market economic program. But if markets expect Alckmin to come forward with criticism of current economic policy, they should hold their horses. Alckmin might think there’s a better way to handle policy but, as a loyal vice president, he’s unlikely to voice any criticism of President Lula internally, let alone to an external audience.
—Adriana Dupita, Brazil and Argentina economist
His own career only took off by a quirk of fate, when Sao Paulo Governor Mario Covas died in office in 2001 leaving Alckmin, then second-in-command, in charge of the country’s largest and most powerful state.
Much like Cardoso, he built a reputation as a political leader who valued technocracy over charisma. While popular with Sao Paulo’s business community, he is known across Brazil by the name Picolé de Chuchu, which conjures up a commonplace vegetable that lacks flavor.
He lost the 2006 presidential runoff to Lula, the epitome of charisma. By the time he ran again in 2018, corruption scandals and an economic collapse had soured Brazilians on the establishment, and he was swatted aside in the first round by Bolsonaro wielding a more populist, and combative, right-wing appeal.
Chastened by the defeat, Alckmin left politics altogether and joined the cast of an afternoon TV show in which he had a segment called “Health Tips with Dr. Alckmin.”
His career appeared over — until Lula, whom Alckmin had once accused of “breaking Brazil,” resuscitated it as part of his own remarkable political revival. In need of a running mate who could broaden his appeal against Bolsonaro, Lula tapped Alckmin.
Surprisingly Close Ties
The two have so successfully put their rivalry behind them that their close relationship sometimes surprises the president’s leftist allies, according to people familiar with the situation. Alckmin genuinely respects Lula as well as Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, who was responsible for building bridges between them about three years ago.
It helps that the methodical and cautious Alckmin boasts a reputation as publicity-shy, a stark contrast to his boss. But it’s not just an act: Both in public and in private, he often praises Lula. And even when Lula’s traveling abroad and he is in charge of the country, Alckmin remains behind his own desk, under no circumstances using the presidential office to which he’s entitled.
He remains in many ways a creature of the heartland, who slowly pronounces every syllable of Pindamonhangaba in public speeches. But he’s also used the job to update his image inside and outside the administration.
He habitually cracks a joke as an ice breaker in meetings, a quirk that leaves everyone walking out of rooms with a better impression of Alckmin than they had before, according to people who have witnessed him in operation behind closed doors. His use of colorful dress socks and messaging that mixes government information with playful posts have won him an audience among younger Brazilians on social media.
There’s more to the vice president than memes, though. Alckmin has been given the task of restarting the country’s industrialization process with the automotive sector as a priority. He’s achieved remarkable results: 180 billion reais ($29 billion) in investment, according to data released this week by the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, known as Anfavea.
Alckmin’s faith is so integral to his life that he always instructs his team to include a church on his travels around Brazil. When Lula flew from Brasilia to São Paulo for brain surgery, the vice president was one of the first people to phone the first lady, Janja da Silva, and asked for prayers for his health at weekly mass.
Days before, Lula had requested that Alckmin represent him on a visit to Pope Francis at the Vatican. During a closed meeting back in Brasilia, aides related that Alckmin was asked if he’d had his photograph taken with the Pope.
“Of course, and I’ll take it to my grave,” he replied. “I can’t think of a better passport to enter Heaven.”
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