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Trump Opening Sprint Imperiled by Slim Final GOP House Tally

John Duarte, left, and Adam Gray. Photographer: Modesto Bee/Tribune News Service/Getty Images (Modesto Bee/Photographer: Modesto Bee/Tribun)

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s hopes for a 100-day legislative bonanza are in peril because of late losses in competitive congressional districts and his own decision to pluck loyalists from the US House for key administration jobs.

Already hindered by internal strife and dissension, the small GOP House majority will dwindle further early in the Trump administration. Republicans will have only a one-vote swing margin through at least early April, when special elections will be held for vacancies that Trump himself caused.

This means in the early months of Trump’s administration a single Republican House lawmaker’s defection could at least temporarily derail Trump initiatives or other GOP-only legislation that does not have any Democratic support. 

“No margin for error,” Representative Guy Reschenthaler of Pennsylvania, a top House Republican vote-counter says of the need to keep members of the party in line.

Democrat Adam Gray, a former state assemblyman, defeated Republican incumbent John Duarte in California’s 13th Congressional District, in the final US House race called by the Associated Press, made early Wednesday New York time. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson and fellow Republicans will enter the new Congress holding a 220-215 majority in the 435-member House. It is a narrower majority than the current Congress, in which Republicans have often struggled to pass legislation.

Underscoring how precarious the Republican majority is, the GOP now has the slimmest margin of control either party has held following any election since 1930, according to the US House of Representatives’ Office of the Historian.

The GOP lost 52 seats in the first midterm election of the Great Depression but still survived with a two-seat advantage after Election Day — only to lose it after 14 House members-elect died before the new House could convene in December, 1931. Democrats won enough special elections in the meantime to take control of the chamber.

This time, the new GOP majority will quickly drop by a minimum of two seats.

Representative Mike Waltz of Florida — chosen by Trump as his national security adviser — said he’ll resign his House seat on Jan. 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration. Another Floridian reelected on Nov. 5, Matt Gaetz, has said he won’t even return to the House when it reconvenes for the next session on Jan. 3, although he withdrew from consideration as Trump’s initial pick for attorney general.

The Waltz and Gaetz seats won’t be filled until after special elections set for April 1.

But before those seats are filled, Trump’s selection of Representative Elise Stefanik of New York to become UN ambassador will almost certainly add to the GOP seat-setbacks. A special election will have to be scheduled by New York within 90 days from Stefanik’s departure from her congressional seat.

Depending on when and whether Stefanik is confirmed by the Senate, and when she resigns her House seat — Johnson and Republicans could face an even narrower 217-215 edge as they contend with simultaneous vacancies of three seats the party won in November.

In that scenario, losing even just one Republican’s support on a party-line floor votes would result in defeat with a 216-216 tie. That would sink Republican measures just when Trump and Johnson aspire for an ambitious legislative agenda during the first 100 days of Trump’s return to the White House. Even before Stefanik’s departure, just two GOP defections could undo Republican-only legislation.

“Republicans may want to extend the ‘first 100 days’ time frame because everything suggests this will be a long haul,” said Josh Huder, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s governmental affairs institute.

The struggle to maintain Republican unity will be a constant undercurrent in Congress despite the GOP controlling all three elected parts of the US government. The challenge will be greatest in the House, where Republicans have been beset by dysfunction and rebellion.

Hardline conservative Republicans have repeatedly refused to support party legislation over the past two years in a GOP majority, and the even forced the ouster of Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. The discord has continued under Johnson’s speakership, leaving him to make deals with Democrats to pass crucial measures such as funding for the federal government.

Also, many House lawmakers are elderly and Republicans could lose their majority through deaths or illnesses.

“It’s pretty clear Trump is banking on total Republican unity and 100% attendance, neither of which are safe bets based on recent history,” said Andrew O’Neill, legislative director for Indivisible Project, a progressive advocacy group. That gives Democrats a chance to pick fights that “fracture off” Republican lawmakers. 

Still, Trump says he is unbothered by the tight margin. He predicted on Nov. 13 when he endorsed Johnson’s speakership that the party could hold just a four-or-five seat edge in the House but that the size of the margin “doesn’t matter.”

Johnson already has been managing a slim majority in the current Congress, Trump said. “When you can get used to one, you can get used to anything,” he added.

April Elections

As a consolation to the GOP, the three districts represented by Waltz, Gaetz and Stefanik are all strongly Republican areas.

The success of the Republican agenda and Trump’s legislative priorities will largely hinge Trump’s power to sway recalcitrant Republicans, Georgetown University’s Huder said.

“Party moderates will feel the pinch as they are pushed into backing less popular parts of the president-elect’s agenda,” Huder said. “Do right-wing members feel they can to win reelection in a primary after backing watered down policy? We’ll find out.”

--With assistance from Gregory Korte.

(Updates with slimmest margin of control following any election since 1930 in seventh paragraph.)

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