(Bloomberg) -- Where’s Emmanuel Macron?
The French president had landed in Riyadh on Monday for a state visit just as his government was fighting for survival at home — with far-right leader Marine Le Pen threatening to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier in a confidence vote.
Macron mingled with Saudi elite late Monday, just hours after the head of his government warned of France leaping into the unknown — with a government collapse imminent.
Meanwhile, the president’s office released a statement celebrating a renewed partnership with the Kingdom and a joint wish to push for peace in the Middle East after Macron attended a lavish dinner with Mohammed bin Salman.
But Macron stayed mum on what was a day of intense political jockeying back in Paris that saw his government cave on key far-right demands on the budget bill, only to be told hours later its end was near. French lawmakers are set to hold a no-confidence vote Wednesday, with Le Pen expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition to topple the government on the back of a budget dispute.
The French president’s recent diplomatic overtures, that included stops in Argentina, Chile and the Group of 20 gathering, come as political uncertainty grips France. Foreign policy in France has always been the exclusive remit of the president, but Macron appears to have taken the prescription a step further in leaving his prime ministers to deal with the messiness of parliamentary politics. Former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was similarly thrust into months of pension-reform related backlash in 2022 while Macron stuck to his packed international diplomacy agenda.
This time however, Macron can’t escape the political turmoil that many observers say he’s responsible for.
Macron learned his prime minister would face a no-confidence vote – which he is likely to lose — while on the plane to Saudi Arabia.
Macron canceled all press opportunities in Riyadh on Tuesday morning.
With the no-confidence motion set for late Wednesday in the French parliament, some in the president’s entourage are now wondering if he should scrap his visit to the scenic oasis of Al-Ula on Wednesday. Images of Macron strolling about in the UNESCO World Heritage Site, just as the National Assembly gets ready to overthrow his prime minister, will do nothing to calm nerves in France.
The political uncertainty in France has laid bare just how fragile Macron’s position has become since his gamble to call snap elections in June backfired, costing him his relative majority in parliament following a defeat to Le Pen in European elections. It then took him nearly two months to find a new prime minister. As the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier was deemed capable of surviving a no-confidence vote. If his government collapses, Barnier will be the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic.
And with that, Macron will be back to the drawing board to find a new prime minister. But there is no obvious candidate who could command a majority spanning three bitterly opposed blocs in the National Assembly. A second option would be fresh legislative elections to change the balance of power in parliament, but Macron cannot do that until the summer of 2025, a year after the last ballot.
With no obvious way to restore political stability, some opposition figures have called for his resignation — what Le Pen described on Monday as a third option. “Our constitution is clear when there is a grave political crisis,” Le Pen said. “It’s the president’s decision and his responsibility.”
But Macron cannot be forced out of his job and the next presidential election, in which Le Pen remains a frontrunner according to polls, is set for 2027.
Macron will land back in Paris on Wednesday evening, likely with promises of investments and lucrative contracts. But the wins in Riyadh will lose their shine as the French president is likely to find himself without a government or a 2025 budget upon arrival.
--With assistance from William Horobin and Samy Adghirni.
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