(Bloomberg) -- Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth is vying for a third term in elections on Sunday that take place against the backdrop of an economic boom and eroding public trust in the political establishment.
Members of just three families have led the Indian Ocean archipelago since it gained independence from Britain in 1968. Jugnauth assumed the premiership in 2017 after his father stepped down and retained the post in 2019 elections. He’s backed by the Alliance Lepep, which comprises his Mouvement Socialiste Militant and four allied parties.
Jugnauth’s main challenger is Navinchandra Ramgoolam, himself a three-time prime minister and son of the nation’s first post-independence leader, who’s the flagbearer for the four-party Alliance du Changement. The premier is selected from among lawmakers in the National Assembly.
The ruling coalition is likely to retain power because it has the advantage of incumbency, a strong rural support base and is benefiting from an improved macroeconomic outlook, according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Its share of the vote is expected to decline, however, because of “growing perceptions of shrinking democratic space,” BMI said in an Oct. 28 article on its website.
Mauritius was ranked as Africa’s best-governed country after Seychelles in a report published by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation last month. But a July survey by Afrobarometer showed just 32% of respondents in Mauritius expressed satisfaction with democracy. That’s down from 72% a decade ago — among the sharpest drops on the continent.
Afrobarometer also found that faith in the system plunged in South Africa, where the African National Congress this year lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it took power in 1994. The same occurred in Botswana, where the party that ruled for almost six decades finished fourth in last month’s elections.
The Mauritian government’s commitment to democracy and free speech came under scrutiny earlier month when it directed telecommunications companies to suspend access to TikTok, YouTube and other social-media platforms until after the elections.
The curbs, which were imposed after it emerged that allegedly illegal recordings of the police chief discussing crimes and politicians and journalists’ calls were circulating on the platforms, were lifted within 48 hours. Jugnauth said there were reasons to believe the country had fallen victim to a cyber-terrorist attack.
Mauritians are disgruntled with having to choose between the same political actors, who have dominated politics for decades and shifted allegiances to contest elections, rather than democracy per se, according to Amédée Darga, managing partner of advisory firm StraConsult, which works with Afrobarometer.
“Mauritius urgently needs to have a team who will ensure there is trusted and more open governance, trusted and efficient institutions,” and will put together an economic agenda that will carry the nation through the next 15 years rather than focus on short-term goals, he said.
A member of the African Union, Mauritius has long been upheld as one of the 54-nation bloc’s economic and political success stories. The government has diversified the sugar-dependent economy by developing the tourism, manufacturing and financial services industries, and the country consistently ranks among the region’s top investment destinations.
Gross domestic product has expanded by an annual average of 6.5% since the nation’s borders reopened in mid-2021 after a pandemic-era shutdown, while there have been record foreign capital inflows of 40 billion rupees ($860 million), according to Finance Minister Renganaden Padayachy.
The government expects the growth rate to be maintained at more than 6% until 2030, with tourist arrivals projected to rise 2 million a year by then — up from about 1.4 million currently. It also anticipates an influx of billions of rupees under a deal that will see the UK cede sovereignty of the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius, while retaining a military base there.
Vinaye Ancharaz, an economist and member of Ramgoolam’s alliance, dismisses the government’s portrayal of a booming economy as a mirage, and accuses it of significantly understating public debt by raising financing through special purpose vehicles.
Productivity has stagnated over recent years, inflation is set to reverse its downward trend and urgent reforms are needed to avert economic disaster, he said.
About 1 million people have registered to cast ballots. Polling stations opened at 7 a.m local time and are due to close at 6 p.m, and the results are likely to be announced on Monday.
--With assistance from Gina Turner and Matthew Hill.
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