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Ukraine’s Fate Will Shape the Future of the EU, Estonia Says

Kristen Michal, Estonia’s prime minister, following an interview at the Estonian embassy in Brussels on Oct. 16. (Ksenia Kuleshova/Photographer: Ksenia Kuleshova/B)

(Bloomberg) -- Estonia’s prime minister said that support for Ukraine in the months ahead will shape the future of the European Union as he urged his colleagues to do more to protect Kyiv and themselves. 

Kristen Michal said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that allowing Russia to change Ukraine’s borders by force would undermine European values. He appealed to his EU partners to boost defense spending in order to meet the threat from the Kremlin and demonstrate to Donald Trump that Europe is serious about security. 

“The European value-based and rule-based system will also somewhat be decided in the conflict,” Michal, 49, said at the Estonian embassy in Budapest. “That probably also will be a mark that will be left on Europe.”

Michal is in the Hungarian capital for meetings beginning Thursday where European leaders will be digesting the result of the US election and trying to forge their initial response to the prospect of second presidential term for Trump. 

Their most pressing concern will the future of Ukraine. Trump promised during the US election campaign that he would quickly end the fighting with Russian, but he has been ambiguous in his support for Ukraine. 

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the US in September, Trump initially refused to meet with him and then vaunted his ties to Vladimir Putin during an awkward conversation in New York. 

“We have a very good relationship and I also, as you know, have a very good rlationship with President Putin,” Trump said when the two men spoke to reporters. “If we win I think we’re going to get it resolved very quickly.” 

Zelenskiy had an “excellent” phone call with Trump and they both agreed to maintain a close dialog, he said in a post on X social media service on Wednesday.

The incoming president also criticized the scale of US military support for Ukraine and has consistently railed against NATO allies who he says don’t deliver their fair share of defense spending. At a campaign rally in February, Trump said that he wouldn’t honor his defense commitments to members who didn’t meet the alliance’s spending targets. 

The concern in Kyiv, and among Ukraine’s allies, is that the next US president might force the Ukrainians to accept a deal from Putin that involves widespread concessions. They also have broader worries that without clear long-term guarantees over Ukraine’s future, Russia could use any halt in the fighting to rebuild its military and prepare for another assault. 

Estonia and its Baltic neighbors Latvia and Lithuania have been among the most outspoken supporter of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began more that two and a half years ago. The countries have urged their western NATO allies to increase military aid to Kyiv and to impose more punishing sanctions on the Kremlin.

Renewed US pressure to invest more into security could turn out to be a good thing, according to Michal. Estonia is already the second biggest spender on defense as a percentage of economic output among the alliance members.

“Last time Trump was around, he told Europe to get a grip and invest more in defense and so we did,” Michal said. “Europe will step up.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.