(Bloomberg) -- Democrats’ best hope for power in Washington after Donald Trump won back the White House hinges on the outcome of a handful of fiercely competitive US House races.
The party needs a net gain of just four House seats to wrest the slim majority from Republicans. But with several key races still too close to call — particularly in notoriously slow-counting California — it could be days before it’s clear which party has the majority.
There’s reason for optimism for House Democrats, who picked up at least two seats in New York and who gained a seat each in Alabama and Louisiana, thanks to redistricting. But at least one loss in Pennsylvania, another in Michigan and failure to pick up some other competitive East Coast and Midwest seats make the race for the House a true toss-up.
Democratic House control would force Republicans to negotiate on trillions of dollars worth of provisions in the 2017 tax law that expire at the end of next year. It also would provide a check on Trump’s “America First” foreign policy agenda, providing perhaps some hope to Ukraine and other allies of continued support.
The House under Democratic control also impeached Trump twice during his first term in office. He was never convicted by the Senate.
Trump’s early Wednesday victory in key battleground state Pennsylvania all but closed Vice President Kamala Harris’ pathway to the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House. Trump had 277 Electoral College votes Wednesday morning.
Republicans won control of the Senate with at least 51 seats, with several other seats still too close to call.
To understand how close the struggle for the House is, only three of 22 toss-up races were called by the early hours of Wednesday. Counting was ongoing in many other competitive districts.
Flipped Republican seats include those held by freshmen Brandon Williams, who represents a district around Syracuse, and Marc Molinaro, whose district includes parts of the Catskills, the Hudson Valley and the Finger Lakes.
The two seats Democrats picked up in Louisiana and Alabama, thanks to redistricting, were more than offset by three expected Republican pickups in redrawn districts in North Carolina, creating a see-saw effect as returns continued to come in.
The battle for the House could ultimately come down to five hard-fought races in California, where absentee ballots can be counted for up to a week after the election provided they’re postmarked by Election Day.
(updates paragraphs 1-6 with Trump win)
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