(Bloomberg) -- A murdered priest, a beheaded mayor, car bombs and an all-out cartel war have stained Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s first month in office.
The killings have had a higher shock value reminiscent of the late 2000s, when Felipe Calderon’s administration launched a war against drug cartels. Back then, decapitations and hangings were common sights in Mexican newspapers.
Sheinbaum inherited the security crisis from her predecessor and mentor, former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. But recent high-impact, violent crimes have put pressure on the new leader to deliver results on the security front — and fast. Barely one month into her administration, experts are questioning whether her plan is enough to rein in the nonstop violence.
October was a grim month. In Mexico’s north, a battle between warring factions of the Sinaloa cartel has had civilians holed up in their homes for weeks, as deafening bursts of high caliber weapons are heard all day and all night. In southern Guerrero, a mayor who had declined to negotiate with local gangs was slain barely a week into the job on Oct. 6, his head left atop a white van.
In southeastern Chiapas, Marcelo Perez — a high-profile priest who had for decades denounced criminal groups in the area — was shot to death on a Sunday morning as he was hopping in his car after giving mass on Oct. 20. In Michoacan, lemon growers tired of paying extortions went on a five-day strike after a well-known producer was murdered in September.
“She both inherited a crisis as well as the commitments AMLO made to a range of stakeholders like the National Guard,” said Gladys McCormick, a Syracuse University professor who specializes in Mexico-US relations, referring to the former president by his initials.
“On the surface, aspects of Sheinbaum’s strategy, including some of the folks she’s named to key positions, is strong,” she said. But the worsening violence is putting it to an early test, McCormick added.
On Tuesday, Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch gave a briefing on the advances in law enforcement so far under Sheinbaum during her daily press conference. Part of the strategy has been to reorient the deployment of government forces to prioritize Sinaloa, Chiapas and Michoacan, according to a video shown after his presentation.
Another pillar of the plan is to “consolidate” the National Guard created under AMLO. But “it’s not clear what this means,” McCormick said. “The lack of details suggests there is still some closed-door negotiation between the military and the Sheinbaum administration. Will she be as accommodating to the military’s agenda as AMLO was?”
Lopez Obrador oversaw one of the deadliest periods in Mexico’s recent history, with homicides nearly reaching 200,000 under his rule. AMLO invested a lot of time and money in strengthening the military, yet he made improving education and economic opportunities a centerpiece of his crime-fighting strategy.
Sheinbaum has so far followed in his footsteps. “We’re not going back to Calderon’s drug war,” she has said multiple times.
The widespread violence hasn’t been limited to killings among cartel members.
The day she took office, the military shot and killed six migrants traveling in a truck in Chiapas. In Colima, navy and police officials killed another six civilians that same day. Later in October, the National Guard and the army shot and killed an eight-year-old girl and a nurse in separate incidents in northern Tamaulipas.
Meanwhile, Sinaloa registered 143 homicides in September, according to federal data, three times the 44 recorded in August. October has been even worse. State authorities have preliminarily informed of 174 killings as of Oct. 29.
The government has pushed back against criticism that its response to the different crises hasn’t been enough.
‘This Is About Drugs’
In radio interviews only days before his death, the Chilpancingo mayor had asked for additional help from federal authorities given a close aide had just been killed. Sheinbaum’s government said it didn’t receive any official request for help.
On Oct. 24, two car bombs exploded in different towns in Guanajuato. Responding to questions on whether this amounted to terrorism, Garcia Harfuch said no. “Terrorism has ideological and religious tinges,” Sheinbaum’s security chief said. “This is about drugs.”
The government’s plan also puts a lot of emphasis on communication and the sharing of intelligence among all the different agencies at the federal, regional and local level. But it’s not clear what will happen after all that sharing, McCormick said.
“The logical reasoning follows that once the information is shared, there should be some accompanying action to do something with it,” she said. “The absence of details is what’s concerning.”
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