(Bloomberg) -- Bulgaria will vote in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday that is expected to deepen a political stalemate in one of the European Union’s poorest and most corrupt nations.
This will be the country’s seventh vote in less than four years and its second this year.
Pollsters expect former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb party to win by a significant margin. But years of corruption scandals and accusations of mafia ties, which he denies, have made it difficult for him to forge a coalition. Borissov ran Bulgaria on and off for more than a decade until anti-graft protests brought him down in 2021.
Political analysts won’t rule out another election in early 2025.
The Balkan country has repeatedly faced scrutiny from Brussels over corruption in politics and the judiciary. The stalemate has also delayed plans to adopt the euro to late next year or early 2026 and held up billions of euros in EU aid.
Exit polls will be published after the voting ends at 8 p.m. local time, with preliminary results expected a few hours later.
Here’s what to watch:
Coalition Commotion
Borissov has pitched a coalition to keep Bulgaria on its pro-western course to a bloc of parties led by former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov. But backing from the alliance, which has run on an anti-corruption agenda, isn’t guaranteed and may not suffice. Petkov’s bloc emerged as the biggest loser of June’s election.
Borissov has vowed to take office as prime minister himself, should his party win by a large margin, but hasn’t ruled out going alone in a minority government.
Smaller parties are unlikely to back a government without either Petkov or Borissov’s blocs. Potential coalition partners are hard to predict, as several small anti-establishment parties are close to the threshold needed to enter parliament.
Turnout Troubles
Bulgarians’ willingness to vote has fallen precipitously since Borissov first took office fifteen years ago. Back then, the turnout exceeded 60%.
None of the latest votes produced a stable majority and only a third of eligible voters turned up at the polling stations in June. That trend may continue with Sunday’s turnout expected to hit an all-time low, depriving political parties of public backing required for key reforms.
Pro-Russia Vote
The low turnout is also likely to strengthen a Moscow-friendly nationalist Revival party, which has come second in recent opinion polls. It wants to take Bulgaria out of NATO and has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points about the war in Ukraine.
Revival has no friends among the mainstream parties. But were Borissov’s Gerb as the likely winner fail to form a government, Bulgaria’s president is obliged to give the mandate to the runner-up. Revival was running neck-and-neck with Petkov’s bloc in the most recent polls.
While chances for an outright anti-western majority are slim, the politicking born of the turmoil has already helped Revival pass a law against the so-called LGBTQ ‘propaganda’ in schools, which activists have slammed as echoing Russian legislation.
Bulgaria has long been one of the most Russia-friendly members of the EU and Revival is not the only anti-establishment party, which has demonstrated sympathy toward the Kremlin.
Sanctioned Kingmaker
A major headache for all political players, but also a potential ally, is Delyan Peevski. His party backed Borissov’s cabinet after the June election.
A lawmaker and former media mogul sanctioned by the US for corruption, Peevski is seen as the face of graft in Bulgaria and a politically toxic coalition partner.
Political infighting has split Peevski’s own party in two since June, weakening his clout in parliament. Nevertheless, opponents say his influence in the judiciary and law enforcement remains strong.
Euro Doubts
Successive governments have argued that adopting the EU’s single currency will help Bulgaria close the wealth gap with other member states. One of the EU’s least-indebted countries, Bulgaria seeks to meet its inflation targets in order to adopt the euro as early as next year.
However, politicians’ promises have already pushed government spending to the limit of what Brussels allows. More political uncertainty may make it even harder for Sofia to convince the European Central Bank and the EU that it is ready to join the euro zone.
--With assistance from Julius Domoney.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.