(Bloomberg) -- The US presidential election will likely be decided by a only few thousand voters in a handful of what have come to be known as swing states.
In most places, there’s little doubt about whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will win the state’s Electoral College votes, even before the polls open. That’s why the Harris and Trump campaigns spend the bulk of their time and money on just a small number of states where the race is truly competitive.
What is a swing state?
That’s the political designation of states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where the parties have similar levels of support and that have voted for both Democratic and Republican candidates in recent presidential elections.
As the US electorate has become more polarized, the number of true swing states has shrunk to just a handful where there’s some doubt about the outcome of the presidential race. There’s no way that Trump will carry Massachusetts, for example, or that Harris will win Oklahoma.
Both parties can count on a certain number of Electoral College votes based on the states they are almost guaranteed to win, such as the 11 votes from Massachusetts for Democrats and seven from Oklahoma for Republicans. So they fight over the swing states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
How many swing states are there?
The exact list can vary, but political analysts generally identify seven key swing states this year: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Those are the states that were close in the 2020 election between Trump and Joe Biden and have a history of being competitive. In 2016, for example, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a combined 77,744 votes, while Biden won all three states in 2020.
Arizona and Georgia voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016; Nevada voted narrowly for Democrats in both 2016 and 2020 and North Carolina voted narrowly Republican both times.
What do swing states have in common?
They are generally diverse economically and culturally, and in some cases, serve as microcosms for the US as a whole.
Take Pennsylvania, perhaps the most coveted swing state with its 19 electoral votes, which both campaigns see as an important part of their path to victory.
The commonwealth has a mix of urban regions including Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and swaths of rural areas. It has a diverse economy, and its demographic profile is similar to that of the US. Pennsylvania’s population is 10.5% Black, slightly less than the 12.3% for the entire US population, and its per capita income of $41,234 is very close to the $41,261 nationwide.
Does the list of swing states ever change?
Yes. Several decades ago, there were roughly twice as many swing states as there are now. But the number has diminished as the country has become more polarized.
Since 2000, 15 states have switched parties from one election to another. In 2024, only seven states are realistically in play and the election could come down to just two or three. Within those states, the continued sorting of Republicans and Democrats means that there are few places that are truly competitive, as red counties get redder and blue counties get bluer. All this means that a smaller number of voters — and the economic issues they care about — are influential in presidential campaigns.
Ohio was once the quintessential swing state that had voted for the winning candidate in every presidential election from 1964 to 2016. But it has become reliably Republican in recent years as its rural counties and more working-class voters are strong GOP supporters.
Campaigns sometimes target a state they think has become more competitive or has seen its demographics change. Minnesota, for example, hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon in 1972. But Trump lost the state by less than two percentage points in 2016 and has campaigned in the state — though Democrats think it’s less competitive since Harris picked the state’s Democratic governor, Tim Walz, to be her running mate.
What do the polls say about the swing states?
The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Oct. 23 shows the two candidates locked in a dead heat. The surge in support for Harris immediately after she replaced Biden on the ticket in late July has flattened.
Some 50% of swing-state voters, who consistently cite the economy as their No. 1 issue, say they trust Trump more to steer the US economy, compared to 45% for Harris. Broken down into categories, Harris leads on the issues she highlights on the campaign trail, particularly housing and health-care costs.
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