(Bloomberg) -- For more than a year, Russia has leaned on its increasingly close ally North Korea for supplies of artillery shells and ballistic missiles to prosecute a grinding war in Ukraine. In October, the partnership entered a new phase as Pyongyang dispatched thousands of soldiers to bolster Russia’s armed forces. On Nov. 4, Ukraine said its troops had clashed with North Korean soldiers for the first time. North Korea’s foreign minister, on a trip to Moscow, promised her country would stick with Russia until “the day of victory.”
How many North Korean troops are we talking about?
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Nov. 4 that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops were in Russia’s Kursk region bordering Ukraine and could engage in combat “in coming days.”
Russia’s army has been trying to dislodge Kyiv’s forces from parts of the region that they captured in August in a surprise incursion. The Kremlin is providing the North Koreans with fake identity documents to make them appear to be Russians, South Korea’s intelligence service has said.
What’s the caliber of North Korean troops?
North Korea has 1.28 million active military personnel, with 1.1 million of them in the army, according to South Korean estimates. They have rarely been battle-tested since fighting in the Korean War ended more than 70 years ago. The bulk of North Korea’s troops rely on “increasingly obsolete equipment” dating back to the days of the Soviet Union, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its 2023 review of the world’s militaries.
What’s in it for North Korea?
In exchange for the arms it’s already sent Russia, the regime of leader Kim Jong Un has received aid that has propped up North Korea’s economy and advanced its weapons programs, according to the US and South Korea. As a reward for sending troops, Kim could probably count on getting more help. South Korean lawmakers briefed by the country’s spy agency said Russia is expected to give economic benefits in return. North Korea has so far sent Russia weapons worth as much as $5.5 billion, according to a study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation released in October, which did not factor in aid for dispatching soldiers. That figure for the munitions transfer is equal to about one-fifth of North Korea’s yearly gross domestic product and if Putin paid that amount — either in cash or goods — it would represent the biggest boost to North Korea’s economy since Kim took power more than a dozen years ago.
Furthermore, deploying troops to Ukraine would give North Korea an opportunity to test its military strategies and equipment against a combatant that uses weapons similar to those deployed by its foe, South Korea. Since the Korean War wound down in 1953, North Korea has rarely sent its troops abroad. On the occasions when it has, it generally dispatched small forces, for example when it sent an estimated 3,000 military personnel to Angola to take part in its civil war in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Kim’s regime sent about 800 military personnel and laborers to aid Syria’s government in 2019, according to Seoul-based specialist news service NK News, citing a United Nations document. North Korea also conducted limited flying missions during the Vietnam War to assist in the fight against US and South Vietnamese forces.
General Charles Flynn, the head of US Army Pacific, raised concerns about the prospect of the North Korean military taking lessons from combat in Ukraine. “There’s some learning going on,” he said at a Center for a New American Security event hosted on Oct. 15. Flynn said in April that Russia’s use of North Korean missiles is giving Pyongyang a rare chance to test its weapons in combat and perhaps improve their performance.
What’s in it for Russia?
More boots on the ground for a fight in which the country has suffered enormous casualties. Any new mobilization in Russia would be deeply unpopular. At the same time, it wouldn’t say much for Russia’s claim to be the world’s second-strongest army if it has to rely on North Korea for soldiers.
Why are North Korea and Russia so close?
As leading democracies worked to isolate Kim and Putin for military moves seen as threatening global security, the two turned to each other for help. North Korea holds vast stores of munitions that work with Russian equipment, and Russia has food, energy and raw materials that North Korea desperately needs. When Putin visited Kim in Pyongyang in June, the two reached a deal to come to each other’s defense if either was ever attacked, in a show of defiance against the US and its partners and the sanctions they’ve imposed. “North Korea assures Russia that it will always be with the Russian comrades until the day of victory,” North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said on Nov. 1 when she met Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Russia.
How could this go wrong for Pyongyang and Moscow?
No North Korean leader has ever faced a situation in which the country’s troops suffered mass casualties fighting in a war abroad. One of North Korea’s guiding policies is putting the military first. The armed forces permeate almost all aspects of society. If the number of North Koreans killed or wounded in Ukraine were to mount, Kim could face rare scrutiny by the military brass that underpins his authority. He’d also risk stirring discontent among the country’s citizens, for whom it’s the norm to have personal connections to the armed forces. One more worry is that some troops may choose to defect rather than fight.
A dispatch of North Korean soldiers to Ukraine could rebound on Russia by inviting South Korea into the fight. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been looking to revise a government policy that prohibits Seoul from sending lethal aid to countries at war. South Korea holds the kind of weapons and munitions sought by the bloc to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s assault. For example, Ukraine needs artillery shells, and South Korea has millions of them.
The budding friendship between Kim and Putin may also irritate North Korea’s biggest traditional benefactor, China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is trying to improve ties with the US and its allies, and has projected a stance of neutrality over the war in Ukraine. The Kim-Putin partnership potentially undermines that effort. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said American officials had urged Beijing to leverage its influence to “curb these activities” during “robust” talks.
--With assistance from Tony Halpin, Roxana Tiron and Shinhye Kang.
(Adds detail on China at end of last section. A previous version of this story corrected the spelling of Kim Jong Un in third section)
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