(Bloomberg) -- When early voting starts in the swing state of Wisconsin on Tuesday, former President Barack Obama will be there to urge Black residents to hit the polls and choose Kamala Harris. His job is getting tougher.
The vice president has been losing ground with Black men across the country, especially young ones. Hit hard by inflation and unemployment, many of them have turned to Donald Trump.
Obama, America’s first Black president, will rally voters in Madison together with Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor and Harris’ running mate. The trip is part of a multi-stop swing for Obama, the second most popular person in the Democratic Party behind his wife, Michelle Obama.
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The Black population has long been a loyal constituency for the Democrats. But now more than a quarter of Black men under 50 have a favorable view of the Republican nominee, according to last month’s poll by the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, an American civil rights organization.
Democrats have hosted a number of events in Wisconsin over the past year, including a “Black Men Vote Weekend of Action” with Wendell Pierce, who played a detective in HBO’s television crime drama “The Wire,” and a gathering of Black owners of small businesses attended by Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. Backers of Harris’s presidential run also have sought to galvanize Black voters in Wisconsin through the “Divine Nine,” the most prominent Black fraternities and sororities whose network Harris has tapped as a member of Alpha Kappa Alpha.
And even before Harris rose to the top of the ticket, Democrats had already moved their Wisconsin campaign headquarters from Madison to Milwaukee for the first time in 20 years. After all, the state’s biggest city has a Black population of about 40%.
“It goes to show the importance that Democrats see in the Black vote in Wisconsin,” said Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson. “Democrats are not just simply thinking that Black folks are going to be in their pocket. They know they have to work for it.”
The state’s 10 electoral votes are key to Democrats maintaining the ‘Blue Wall’ of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that Joe Biden won in 2020. The support of Black Americans, who voted overwhelmingly for the president, will be key.
Biden gained 92% of the Black vote in 2020, up from Hillary Clinton’s 91% four years earlier, according to Pew Research Center. But a September survey by the nonpartisan center showed that just 84% supported Harris.
Black Turnout
Obama, who secured 95% of the Black vote in 2008, will be in Madison to encourage early voting in the state. The former president will also hit the swing states of Michigan on Tuesday and Georgia on Thursday.
In Wisconsin, his biggest challenge might just be reversing a sharp plunge in Black turnout. Just 58% of adults cast a ballot in Milwaukee’s majority Black wards in 2020, down from 77% on 2012, when Obama was reelected, according to a Marquette Law School study.
“We’ve seen a decrease in enthusiasm for voting but not particularly notable increases in support for Republicans among Black voters in Milwaukee,” said John Johnson, a research fellow at Marquette University in Milwaukee.
On the city’s predominately Black north side, Harris-for-President signs dot many of the yards. But one billboard paid for by a group called Vote Conservative MKE, stood out: “2.8 million Black kids live in poverty, why do Democrats choose illegal aliens first? Vote Republican.”
Trump is trying to capitalize after the Black unemployment rate in Wisconsin hit 5.6% in the second quarter. That’s nearly double the state’s overall rate.
The former president has also blamed Democratic governments for an influx of migrants, who he claims are competing with the Black population for blue-collar jobs.
Black households in Wisconsin have also seen their median income, adjusted for inflation, drop by 30% since 1979, according to a 2020 study by Marc Levine, a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee.
Only two-thirds of Black men in prime working age were employed between 2016 and 2018, according to the study. The gap between Black and White male unemployment rates in Milwaukee is the second largest in the country.
Inflation Hit
“Milwaukee’s Black community is suffering from historic inflation and high prices,” Janiyah Thomas, the Black Media director for Trump’s campaign, said in a statement. “Under President Donald J. Trump, the Black community won’t just be heard — they will be empowered.”
Obama’s visit also won’t come without controversy. Earlier this month, he suggested that some Black men were “coming up with reasons and excuses” not to support Harris simply because they weren’t ready to have a woman as president — a comment that generated backlash from the very same young Black men Harris needs to court.
Still, Democrats aren’t giving up. In Wisconsin, the Harris campaign has more than 50 offices across 43 counties, with more than 250 staffers. It’s also spending double the amount of TV ads as it did in 2020.
Democrats are also using an app called Reach, which allows volunteers to connect with people they know are undecided on issues that matters to them. Hearing from someone they already know might be an easier sell than a stranger knocking on the door.
Magic Johnson
Just last week Harris released an “opportunity agenda” for Black men that included 1 million fully forgivable loans of up to $20,000 to Black Americans who start businesses.
And the support of people like Magic Johnson can also help her. At a recent rally in Michigan, another swing state, the Basketball legend addressed the subject.
“Our Black men, we gotta get them out to vote, that’s number one,” he said. “Kamala’s opponent promised a lot of things last time to the Black community that he did not deliver on. And we gotta make sure we help Black men understand that.”
--With assistance from Brendan Case.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.