(Bloomberg) -- Lithuanians are likely to oust the ruling conservatives in an election on Sunday as voters in the Baltic nation — one of NATO’s most vocal critics of Russia’s war in Ukraine — seek more focus on closing economic disparities.
The opposition Social Democratic Party is on course to win the most votes for the first time in 12 years, although its return to office is likely to be complicated as it cobbles together a majority in a fragmented parliament, according to the opinion polls.
The ruling Homeland Union under party leader Gabrielius Landsbergis has steered Lithuania through a period of double-digit inflation and overseen an economy that grew faster than its Baltic peers despite the impact of the war in Ukraine and tensions with neighboring Belarus.
Yet the opposition has successfully tapped into growing discontent among those living outside bigger cities, who are feeling left behind. The anti-establishment mood has also fueled the rise of an upstart party, the Dawn of Nemunas, whose leader is on trial for making antisemitic remarks in his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza.
The two main parties have pledged to keep the new party under Remigijus Zemaitaitis out of potential coalition talks. But he may still emerge as a king-maker. As many as seven parties are projected to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament — and his group is polling third.
“It’s still to be seen how resistant the system is to anti-establishment forces,” Rima Urbonaite, a political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University, said. “Traditional parties seems very weak in this campaign.”
A return to power for the Social Democrats could see Vilija Blinkeviciute, a former social affairs minister, take the premiership. Currently a lawmaker in the European Parliament, the 64-year-old is credited with raising pensions during her stint in government from 2000 to 2008.
The Social Democrats in power could also further strengthen President Gitanas Nauseda, who was elected for a second term earlier this year and has had frosty relations with Landsbergis, who is Lithuania’s foreign minister.
Despite their personal animus, they have been staunch supporters of Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion, a view largely shared across the political spectrum in Lithuania.
The Baltic nation, which is wedged between Belarus and the Baltic Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, plans to increase spending on defense beyond the current 3.2% of economic output as it prepares to host a German brigade and strengthen its air defenses.
That may leave the next government with some hard fiscal choices. Low pensions and limited coverage of social benefits have driven up poverty and income inequality, the European Commission said in a June report.
Most voters, especially outside the relatively affluent capital Vilnius, want more spending to close the wealth gap after high inflation eroded their incomes, pensions and social benefits.
The shift in the political landscape should become clearer after Sunday’s ballot, in which half of the country’s legislators will be chosen. The remaining half will be determined in a second round on Oct. 27.
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