(Bloomberg) -- Just a few years ago, NATO was reeling after being slammed by Donald Trump and dismissed as “brain dead” by French President Emmanuel Macron. Now, after it expanded to counter the threat from Russia, the challenge of keeping the Cold War alliance a geopolitical force is in the hands of Dutchman Mark Rutte.
Affable in public but meticulous behind the scenes, the former prime minister of the Netherlands became secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Tuesday as the 32-nation defense pact enters a pivotal period.
If Trump wins the US election in November, transatlantic support will be in doubt, posing an existential threat to the alliance set up in 1949. That would destabilize Europe’s security architecture with Russia’s war in Ukraine in its third year and Kyiv reliant on a steady stream of military and financial aid for its defense.
On Tuesday, Rutte said that he’s not worried about the outcome of the US election, whether it’s Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. “I will be able to work with both," he told reporters ahead of a handover ceremony.
Rutte will also have to handle pressure from some members to devote more attention to counter-terrorism and reinforce NATO’s southern flank — while keeping defense spending high enough to maintain a credible deterrence, especially with budgets tight in countries like Germany.
He signaled on Tuesday that China will also be a major focus, warning that Beijing has become “a decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine. “This has got to stop and it has an impact on their standing in the world,” he said at a news conference after he formally assumed the new role, while declining to specify what Chinese actions could provoke a stronger NATO response.
It’s a far cry from 2014, when Rutte’s predecessor Jens Stoltenberg was warned by his father that he faced “boring years” running the Brussels-based organization.
Known for his people skills, Rutte — an HR-manager-turned-politician — has shown he can handle difficult situations, and after nearly 14 years running the Dutch government, he has a deep network to draw upon.
“He knows the EU and all its leaders by heart. And he has dealt with Trump,” said Camille Grand, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior NATO official. “Politically, he will hit the ground running.”
His reputation for being able to manage Trump could be particularly valuable. Before meeting the then-president for the first time in 2018, Rutte was determined to build a relationship with him but also stand his ground, so he practiced his handshake and studied Trump’s habits of putting people on the spot, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The former Dutch leader subsequently managed to avoid public humiliation and appeared to maintain a good working relationship with Trump, unlike many other European leaders. The secret was careful planning and preparation, said people close to the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private discussions.
One encounter stands out. During a testy summit in 2018 when Trump threatened to leave NATO unless European countries boosted military spending, Rutte managed to ease tensions by claiming that European allies were indeed stepping up and that was because of Trump. While the reality was at best debatable, the gambit changed the mood and allowed the US president to walk away vindicated.
Since then, Rutte hasn’t abandoned that line, saying in a Bloomberg TV interview in January that Trump was right to complain about Europe’s shortfall in defense spending. When asked about a potential second term for Trump, he added that “we have to dance with whoever is on the dance floor.”
He was similarly matter of fact at the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, when he urged Europeans to “stop moaning and whining” about a Trump comeback. And again on Tuesday, he praised Trump for pressing the alliance on defense spending and to focus more on China. “I think he was right,” Rutte said.
Rutte’s standing with Trump though could change, especially since Rutte owes his position largely to Joe Biden. Trump’s adversary pleaded with the Dutchman more than once to take the NATO helm. One approach was in 2022, which he turned down to stay in power in the Netherlands. But then his coalition collapsed a year later, opening the door for another push.
Ukraine may be a more difficult point of contention. While Trump has been openly critical of aid for Ukraine, Rutte is a staunch supporter. That stance stems in part from his emotional response to the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014 which killed nearly 200 Dutch citizens and has been blamed on Russia.
“There has never been anything bigger and this will always remain number one by far in the 14 years that I have been doing this job,” he told a Dutch radio show earlier this year.
Despite that conviction, the Netherlands hasn’t provided as much aid as some other European peers — ranking ninth in terms of support for Kyiv as a percentage of the national economy. The Netherlands also only crossed the NATO threshold of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense this year. Part of that is due to the complexities in his fragmented coalition.
Despite being hemmed in domestically, Rutte has still been a key figure on the international stage. He was instrumental in convincing the US of the need to send F-16s to bolster the Ukrainian defense. The Netherlands itself plans to transfer 24 of the jet fighters to Kyiv, as well as making 18 available for training.
A gifted piano player, he initially wanted to pursue a musical career, but ended up graduating in history and joining the human resources department of consumer goods company Unilever. He then entered politics full time after an active role in the youth organization of the center-right VVD — known as the Dutch liberals.
His survival skills were tested often during his tenure. In January 2021, his third cabinet collapsed over a scandal involving Dutch childcare benefits. False allegations of fraud were made by tax authorities with the fallout tipping thousands of Dutch families into poverty.
He managed to bounce back, securing a new term in office in a snap election in 2021. But last year, his fourth cabinet collapsed amid infighting over migration policy, prompting Rutte’s decision to leave national politics.
During his long tenure leading the Netherlands, he gained popularity by embodying Dutch pragmatism and frugality, and dismissing the trappings of high office.
Known for biking or driving a second-hand Saab in The Hague, he was known for paying for his own coffee and not requesting reimbursement for costs incurred on duty. He also taught at a secondary school in his hometown throughout his premiership, famously showing up for his weekly social studies class even after his cabinet collapsed in 2023.
That demeanor has carried over to NATO, where he’s refused the usual security services granted to secretary generals, people familiar with the matter said.
The NATO job wasn’t his first choice after leaving Dutch politics. He had initially set his sights on leading the European Commission but had to relent after it became clear that Ursula von der Leyen was set for a second term.
But even then, the NATO role wasn’t guaranteed. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis was also in the running and backed by eastern Europeans, who were initially reluctant to support Rutte because of concerns over an imbalance in the alliance. He will need to be careful to navigate those sensibilities.
During Stoltenberg’s 10-year term, former neutral countries Finland and Sweden joined after the invasion of Ukraine following Montenegro and North Macedonia as new members. There’s also more spending on defense by allies and access to 500,000 combat-ready soldiers. That provides a solid starting point for Rutte to navigate the risks ahead.
“The last 10 years have seen a fundamental transformation at NATO,” said Oana Lungescu, an analyst at the London-based thinktank RUSI and a former NATO spokesperson. “It has the most robust defense plans since the Cold War.”
--With assistance from Katharina Rosskopf and Kevin Whitelaw.
(Updates with Rutte assuming new post, remarks on China starting in the the second paragraph)
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