(Bloomberg) -- German conservative leader Friedrich Merz signaled his CDU/CSU alliance is unlikely to partner with the Greens if it wins next year’s national election, suggesting a so-called grand coalition with the Social Democrats as junior partner would be the most probable outcome.
Merz, chairman of the Christian Democratic Union, will be the conservative candidate to run against Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz next year after clearing a field of rivals to seal the nomination Tuesday. Opinion polls give the CDU and its Bavarian CSU sister party a strong lead over the far-right Alternative for Germany party in second place, with the SPD in third and the Greens, who are part of Scholz’s ruling coalition, in fourth.
As the conservatives have ruled out partnering with the AfD at any level of government, a coalition with either — or both — the SPD and Greens would be their only realistic path to a parliamentary majority, based on current polling.
“There is no party in the democratic spectrum of the broad political center that triggers such aversion with our voters and our members as the Greens,” Merz said late Tuesday in an interview with public broadcaster ARD.
“The Greens are triggering that with their style of politics, with their constant patronizing, with their wild urge for regulation, and with their hostility to technology,” he added. “From today’s perspective, that’s how it is. If the Greens change, that could change again. But it’s up to the Greens. It’s not up to us.”
Merz’s nomination with just over a year before the next scheduled election saved the conservative alliance from the kind of prolonged spat over the candidacy that damaged their chances of victory before the most-recent national ballot in 2021.
It also sets the stage for what is likely to be an ugly campaign, with the issue of immigration certain to dominate amid the rise of extreme forces on the right and left that want to curb migrant arrivals.
The leader of the CDU is almost always the first choice to run for the chancellorship, but Merz’s weak personal approval ratings have raised doubts about whether he can recapture the chancellery.
In the ARD interview, Merz was challenged over why he appears to so categorically rule out working with the Greens at federal level when his party is in coalition with them in five regional parliaments — including North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state.
“The major federal political issues are not decided” at regional level, Merz said, laying into Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the Greens who is also the vice chancellor in Berlin.
“The economic policy that Robert Habeck is conducting is not our economic policy, nor is it my economic policy,” Merz added. “And I wouldn’t accept it either.”
Support for Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance is at the highest level in more than three-and-a-half years, according to an Insa survey for Bild am Sonntag newspaper published at the weekend.
At 33%, Merz’s bloc has more support than the three parties in Scholz’s coalition — his SPD, the Greens and the Free Democrats — combined.
The AfD, which posted significant gains in two regional elections this month in eastern Germany and is expected to do well in another vote in Brandenburg on Sunday, is second with 19%.
If Germans could vote directly for their chancellor, it would likely be a closer contest. According to a separate Insa poll published Sunday, 25% would choose Merz and 21% Scholz. Almost half, or 48%, wouldn’t pick either.
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