(Bloomberg) -- Michel Barnier, a former foreign minister and European commissioner, has kept away from French politics since suffering defeat in his party primary ahead of the 2022 presidential election.
But in a bitterly divided parliament with little prospect of any major policy advances, that lack of a political base is one of the qualities that made the 73-year-old conservative a viable candidate to become France’s next prime minister.
President Emmanuel Macron has been casting around under increasing pressure to find a premier who won’t immediately be toppled by the powerful factions lined up against him since this summer’s parliamentary election. On Thursday, he finally landed on Barnier.
As rivals such as the nationalist Marine Le Pen seek to position themselves for the presidential vote in 2027, Barnier’s failure to break through in domestic politics means he isn’t seen as a serious threat. That should allow him to garner enough support to end the institutional crisis that has gripped France since the result of the snap election in July.
“Michel Barnier isn’t making anyone dream,” Sebastien Chenu, the vice president of Le Pen’s National Rally, told BFM TV before the announcement. “But since we know that the next prime minister won’t be in line with our political views, we have to take stock.”
Barnier’s appointment also shows how Macron’s own political project is unraveling.
Macron took office in 2017 as the figurehead of a new generation, promising to move France beyond the dogmatic limitations of traditional parties and as a bulwark against extremism. Seven years later, the far-right National Rally has more lawmakers than any other single party in the lower house of parliament and he’s turning to an opponent from the distant past to restore a modicum of stability.
Barnier entered politics in the 1970s and was once France’s youngest lawmaker. Until recently, Barnier himself was calling for the end of ‘Macronism’ on his website.
His reputation as a moderate, seasoned center-right politician gives him a shot at forming a government with enough support among right-wing parties to be able to survive a no-confidence motion in the National Assembly, where no bloc commands an outright majority.
Le Pen indicated that she will accept Barnier’s appointment, at least in the short term.
“As we told the president, we demand that the new prime minister respects the 11 million French people who voted National Rally,” she said on X. “We’ll pay close attention to his policies and we’ll be watchful that the aspirations of our voters, who represent a third of French people, are heard and respected.”
By contrast, the far-right party had said clearly it would back a no-confidence vote against other contenders floated by Macron, such as the left-leaning former prime minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, or the conservative head of the Hauts-de-France region, Xavier Bertrand.
Despite becoming a key figure for investors as the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Barnier remains unknown to many in France outside elite circles. In picking him, Macron is demonstrating that stability is his main priority, even if he has also found a premier who holds some of the same economic priorities.
Sword of Damocles
While Macron’s centrist party and its allies would be expected to support whomever he tapped as prime minister, that’s far from enough. To survive, a government would need the support — or at least tolerance — of a significant proportion of either the left or the right.
With a coalition of left-wing parties insisting that it would only be sure to back its own pick for prime minister, the National Rally became key to the outcome.
But the far right’s support could become a sword of Damocles hanging over Barnier.
In 2018, Le Pen slammed his handling of the Brexit talks as a mandate “to punish the British people for their temerity” and called Barnier himself “sinister.”
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a senior National Rally lawmaker, called him a “fossil” on Thursday. “We are in Jurassic Park,” he said on France Inter radio, referring to the 1990s science fiction film.
In his book, “The Great Illusion,” Barnier wrote a detailed account of the highs and lows of the Brexit negotiations, which ended with a deal but failed to solve many issues, including fishing rights for European fishermen in British waters.
In recent years, he has toughened his stance on immigration and ties to the EU, advocating for more sovereignty for France.
In an interview with The Telegraph in June, Barnier blasted Macron’s decision to call snap elections.
“It’s always risky to take a decision that nobody understands,” he said.
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