(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden has called him. Nicolas Maduro wants to get him on the phone. The Venezuelan opposition is yearning for his support. And even his most ardent regional rival, Javier Milei, is now publicly thanking him.
Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has found himself at the forefront of Venezuela’s crisis after Maduro declared himself the victor of an election his opponents say was fraudulent. The dispute and Maduro’s subsequent crackdown on dissent have thrust the leader of Latin America’s largest nation into an increasingly uncomfortable position.
The Venezuelan president is an old ally who still has the support of many within Lula’s leftist Workers’ Party, which endorsed Maduro’s victory this week. The opposition and the growing list of global leaders who back it, meanwhile, have appealed to Lula’s efforts to paint himself as a defender of democracy, especially after he rallied international support for fair elections in his own race just two years ago.
Lula has remained conspicuously careful since Sunday’s vote. He has avoided acknowledging the result and called on Venezuela to release full ballot records. But he has also refused to endorse the idea that the election was rife with fraud, as the opposition has claimed, and said in a TV interview he would “have to accept” the outcome if a Maduro-friendly top court ruled it legitimate.
That has left him a step short of the US, which on Wednesday declared opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez the legitimate winner of the race, but in line with most other Latin American leaders who have yet to accept the results.
Lula’s allies say that his approach is part of a deliberate strategy in line with Brazil’s traditional prioritizing of dialogue in foreign affairs. To his many critics, however, it is merely the latest example of his unwillingness to take a stand against a socialist leader he has long defended, even as Maduro tightens his authoritarian grip on the beleaguered nation.
The 78-year-old Brazilian, whose government faced an insurrection attempt in the wake of his narrow 2022 election victory, is concerned about Venezuelan democracy, five officials with knowledge of his thinking on the matter said. And Lula has grown increasingly frustrated with Maduro, whom he urged to hold a transparent and fair election ahead of the vote, for not heeding those calls, the people said.
But Lula also believes that further isolating Maduro and Venezuela, which has been subject to crushing sanctions from the US in recent years, will fail to resolve the crisis, the people said. And as one of the few global leaders who still has open diplomatic channels with Caracas, he sees it as his role to keep talking to both sides — as well as with other nations that have demands for Maduro.
Lula’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Lula on Thursday spoke with Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro — two other Maduro allies — about the situation. Immediately after, the three nations released a joint statement calling on Venezuela to quickly release the ballot records, and for the impartial verification of the results. Maduro has also asked for a call with Lula, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The approach is part of Lula’s view that “in South America, Brazil is the adult in the room,” said Christian Lynch, a political scientist at the State University of Rio de Janeiro.
Growing Tensions
For now, those efforts have won at least some support from across the region. Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader Maduro barred from the election and has since threatened to arrest, on Wednesday thanked Brazil for taking control of Argentina’s embassy in Caracas after Venezuela expelled the country’s diplomats. Six of Machado’s aides are currently taking refuge in the embassy.
“This could contribute to advancing a constructive and effective negotiation process like the one that Brazil has supported,” Machado said in a social media post.
Milei, the libertarian Argentine leader who routinely trades public barbs with Lula, also lauded Brazil’s move, and Argentina raised a Brazilian flag over its embassy Thursday morning.
Still, Maduro’s actions against the opposition only continue to intensify: On Wednesday, he said Machado “should be behind bars.” She wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday that she had gone into hiding.
That has generated skepticism that Maduro is open to more dialogue. Lula’s prior embraces of Maduro, meanwhile, have raised questions about whether he will eventually accept the results even if Venezuela fails to produce the evidence of the election’s legitimacy that he has demanded.
Last year, Lula labeled Maduro the victim of a “narrative of anti-democracy and authoritarianism,” and allies within his government still sense that he has been slow to recognize that support for Chavismo has plummeted inside Venezuela, the people familiar said.
“Lula’s democratic credentials are particularly important right now, and support for Maduro tarnishes them,” said Celso Rocha de Barros, a newspaper columnist and author of a history of the Workers’ Party.
For all the attention paid to Lula, his leverage is limited in a nation where even sanctions imposed by the US — once the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil — failed to sway Maduro. Trade between Brazil and Venezuela totaled roughly $1.7 billion last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, less than a third of Venezuela’s flows with the US.
“Venezuela is strategically very autonomous because it doesn’t depend much on its neighbors,” said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo.
Lula, the people familiar said, is still deliberating over his next steps. Even if Maduro does not meet his demands, he is unlikely to break ties completely, according to one person familiar with his thinking. Instead, the person said, he is likely to take the approach he has applied to Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega — another ally turned regional outcast, with whom Lula hasn’t spoken in more than a year.
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